Dallas has won four straight, but the Islanders bring a useful challenge to the Stars’ momentum: New York can generate plenty of shots even when the result doesn’t follow. The Islanders fired 43 shots in Thursday’s overtime loss to Los Angeles, and our projections give them a small shooting-volume advantage again here. With Dallas priced as a substantial favorite, the question is whether its stronger attack can make winning look more comfortable against an opponent getting strong recent work from Ilya Sorokin.
Dallas is winning, but the margins matter
The latest DraftKings moneyline makes Dallas a -198 favorite, with New York at +164. The Stars have earned respect, although their last two wins both required overtime. Against Winnipeg on Thursday, Roope Hintz tied the game with two minutes left in regulation and then scored the winner in a 3-2 victory. Those wins count just the same on the moneyline, but the tight finishes are worth considering before treating the streak as evidence of a comfortable advantage.
That game also showed how many Dallas forwards can contribute. Wyatt Johnston scored and added an assist, while Jason Robertson and Mikko Rantanen each supplied two assists. Our grades favor the Stars’ attack, B to New York’s D+, giving Dallas a stronger scoring assessment even without an expected advantage in shot count.
The Islanders’ counterargument starts with their ability to put shots on net. They outshot the Kings 43-26 in their 3-2 overtime defeat, with Matthew Schaefer scoring in the third period. Our shot projections put New York at about 27 and Dallas at 26. That narrow volume edge doesn’t establish better chances, but it gives the Islanders a way to pressure Dallas rather than simply absorb its attack.
Two goalies give the 5.5 total some context
The expected matchup between Ilya Sorokin and Jake Oettinger matters to both the moneyline and the 5.5-goal total. Across his last five appearances this season, Sorokin has a .917 save percentage and a 2.00 goals-against average. Oettinger has been even sharper over his own five-appearance sample, posting a .923 save percentage and a 1.56 goals-against average. Their recent performances give both attacks a difficult obstacle, though the starting assignments remain unconfirmed.
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The recent betting results fit that low-scoring backdrop. All 10 Dallas games this season finished under their respective totals, producing a historical profit of 8.77 units from flat one-unit Under bets. Seven of New York’s last 10 games also went under. Those results came at the lines and prices available for those games; today’s 5.5 already leaves less room for scoring than the 6.5 totals attached to some of those Dallas results.
There’s a meaningful counterweight in Dallas’ forwards. Hintz’s two late goals against Winnipeg, supported by production from Johnston, Robertson and Rantanen, show why strong recent goaltending doesn’t make this total straightforward. Our projections also allow for about three power-play opportunities per team, leaving special teams a potential source of scoring even without heavy overall shot volume. At 5.5, those opportunities matter alongside the goalies’ recent form—not just the length of the Under streaks.
The price deserves as much attention as the streak
Dallas has the stronger attacking assessment and excellent recent goaltending, so New York’s small projected shot advantage isn’t enough on its own to overturn the favorite’s case. The Islanders’ more persuasive challenge combines that volume with Sorokin’s recent ability to limit goals. At -198, the practical question is how reliably Dallas can turn its attacking advantage into a win—not whether it wins by a particular margin. The Stars’ recent overtime victories make that distinction worth keeping in mind: the streak is real, but so is the evidence that another tight finish is possible.
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