The Knicks finally found a winning stretch of basketball Tuesday. Now they have to take it on the road against a Bulls team that has struggled to get stops. Both teams are 1-3, but New York’s defensive outlook and Chicago’s recent scoring swings make those matching records a poor shortcut for judging Wednesday’s matchup.
Can New York build on its breakthrough?
New York beat Detroit 111-97 behind 27 points and 20 rebounds from Karl-Anthony Towns. Jalen Brunson finished with 23 points after shooting 1-for-9 in the first half, and the Knicks took control with a 37-13 third quarter. That gives them something concrete to build on: Towns supplied a big night on the boards, while Brunson recovered from a rough start.
Chicago’s last third quarter went the other way. Boston outscored the Bulls 39-21 in that period during Monday’s 134-99 loss, with Payton Pritchard hitting all five of his three-point attempts in the quarter. The Bulls finished 12-for-44 from three, while Norman Powell scored 20 points in Monday’s loss. New York has a recent example of turning a game around; Chicago needs to prevent another stretch from getting away from it.
Our grades give the Knicks an A- on defense and the Bulls a D-. That is the clearest contrast in our team evaluations, with New York’s offense at B and Chicago’s at B-. It puts the pressure on Chicago to sustain its scoring against a defense we rate highly, rather than counting on New York to repeat its early-season shooting struggles.
A road favorite still has work to do
DraftKings makes New York a 7.5-point favorite. Our projections have the Knicks committing about 12 turnovers to Chicago’s 15, a useful advantage in avoiding empty trips. The rebounding outlook is much closer, at roughly 45 apiece, so Towns’ 20-rebound game against Detroit should not be treated as a promise of another overwhelming edge on the glass.
The scheduling counterweight is straightforward: New York played at home Tuesday and visits Chicago Wednesday, while the Bulls last played Monday. The Knicks also have just one win and one spread cover through four games this season, exactly like Chicago. Tuesday’s improvement matters, but asking New York to cover on the second night of a back-to-back requires more than carrying one excellent quarter forward.
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The Under results need some context
The total is 233.5. All four Knicks games this season have gone Under their respective totals, as have three of Chicago’s four. Those results have come through different paths: the Bulls have allowed at least 124 points in every game, while their own scoring has ranged from 92 to 132.
That makes Chicago’s attack a central uncertainty at this number. New York’s defensive grade and Chicago’s 99-point outing in Boston support a more restrained scoring case. The Bulls’ defensive problems pull the other way, offering the Knicks a chance to build on Tuesday’s recovery. The early Under records are useful background, but Chicago’s uneven offense and generous defense deserve separate attention before judging today’s total.
New York has the stronger defensive foundation and a projected advantage in taking care of the ball. Chicago’s best answer is a more consistent offensive night, with the schedule giving it an extra day between games. For bettors, the key is whether the Knicks can sustain Tuesday’s improvement across a road game, rather than treating the first win as a complete reset.
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