Texas found a way to beat Ole Miss after giving up a 21-point lead. Now the Longhorns face a different test: keeping control against a Mississippi State team that has struggled to score. Texas is a 20.5-point favorite at DraftKings, a line that puts its ability to avoid costly mistakes alongside the Bulldogs’ need for an earlier offensive response.
Texas won, but gave itself more work
The Longhorns beat Ole Miss 34-27 on Saturday after leading 24-3 at halftime. Arch Manning ran for two touchdowns, including the fourth-quarter score that broke a 24-24 tie. Raleek Brown ran for 157 yards, with a 47-yard gain setting up that go-ahead touchdown.
Texas also committed 14 penalties for 134 yards and allowed a fumble return for a touchdown. A late Ole Miss onside-kick recovery kept the result in doubt until Jelani McDonald’s interception on the final play. The Longhorns had enough offense to answer, but they made a comfortable position much harder to finish.
That distinction matters at this spread. Texas is 5-2 outright but has covered only two of seven games this season. Its latest win ended consecutive 27-24 losses to Oklahoma and Florida, games in which it had also held double-digit leads.
Mississippi State needs points before the late rally
The Bulldogs lost to Oklahoma 23-15 on Saturday, their third straight defeat. A fumble near the Oklahoma goal line ended a promising second-quarter possession, and the Sooners followed it with a 96-yard touchdown drive. Mississippi State later trailed 17-0 before scoring its first touchdown in eight quarters.
There was a late response. Billy Puckett’s 42-yard touchdown pass to Sanfrisco Magee and a two-point conversion cut the deficit to eight with 2:10 left. Oklahoma then ran out the clock. Mississippi State made the finish closer, but the early scoring drought had left it with little room to recover.
Our grades give both offenses an A, which offers a more favorable view of the Bulldogs’ attack than their latest results alone. The defensive comparison is much less even: Texas receives an A+ against Mississippi State’s B. The Bulldogs have to turn that offensive evaluation into production against the stronger defensive unit.
Our passing projections favor Texas, about 257 yards to Mississippi State’s 188. The rushing outlook is closer, roughly 147 yards for the Longhorns and 133 for the Bulldogs, within total-yardage projections of about 404 and 321. Texas has the broader expected output, while Mississippi State has a plausible route to a better offensive day if its ground production helps it sustain drives and it finishes scoring chances.
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The 50.5 total brings mistakes into the picture
Four of seven games for each team have gone Under this season. Mississippi State has scored 23, zero and 15 points during its losing streak; Texas’ last three point totals are 24, 24 and 34. Those results make the Bulldogs’ ability to contribute sustained scoring an important part of the 50.5-point total.
The offenses’ A grades and Texas’ larger passing outlook provide a case for productive drives. Texas’ defensive advantage and Mississippi State’s recent stalled possessions challenge it. Mistakes can also change the scoring route: Texas gave up a defensive touchdown against Ole Miss, while Mississippi State’s fumble against Oklahoma turned a potential scoring opportunity into a long drive the other way. Cleaner possessions could help both offenses finish their own work without supplying those extra openings.
Texas has the stronger overall case, especially through its defense and passing outlook. Its lead-management problems are the meaningful counterweight to treating this as a straightforward assignment. Mississippi State’s best response is to produce points earlier and protect its scoring chances; Texas’ clearest improvement is to make the Bulldogs earn their opportunities instead of handing them a route back.
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