Texas State won its last two games with dramatically different production: 716 yards in one, 250 in the other. That swing makes the Bobcats an interesting test for No. 20 Boise State, whose latest win came through a late rushing surge. The matchup turns on how much of Texas State’s attacking ceiling travels to Boise, and how consistently the Broncos can make their ground game count.
Two wins, very different kinds of help
The Bobcats beat Colorado State 66-27 before edging Utah State 20-17 on Saturday. Against Utah State, their offense produced one touchdown drive, while Jaylen Jenkins contributed a 100-yard kickoff return for a score. Jacob Bonilla’s late 37-yard field goal supplied the winning points in the three-point victory.
Texas State did put together two important 13-play drives in that game, including the six-minute possession that ended with Bonilla’s winner. Those possessions offer a more repeatable attacking goal than counting on another return touchdown: sustain the offense long enough to finish drives. Brad Jackson passed for 167 yards in the win.
At 4-3, the Bobcats have shown they can win both a scoring spree and a tight finish. For this trip, though, the 250-yard performance is a reminder to separate winning from offensive production. Special teams made a substantial difference on a night when the attack had far less output.
Boise’s running game can change a close contest
Boise State was tied 10-10 at Washington State before scoring three fourth-quarter touchdowns in a 31-10 win. Dylan Riley rushed for 128 yards and two scores, with touchdown runs of 33 and 72 yards. The first followed an interception that gave the Broncos the ball at Washington State’s 35.
The Broncos finished with 258 rushing yards and held the Cougars to 53. That combination helped turn a close game into their sixth straight victory. It also shows why a final margin can miss the shape of a game: Boise had to find its separation late.
Our rushing projections give the Broncos about 230 yards here, compared with roughly 185 for Texas State. Passing output is essentially even at about 230 yards apiece. That expected balance puts the ground game at the center of the comparison, with Texas State’s passing production offering a way to stay involved rather than leaving every possession to its runners.
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A big spread and an ambitious scoring threshold
DraftKings has Boise State favored by 11.5 points. The Broncos’ 6-1 record is stronger than their 4-3 record against the spread this season; their six-game winning streak has included three games they didn’t cover. Texas State is 3-4 against the spread. Boise’s ability to build separation matters more to this price than the winning streak alone.
The 63.5-point total asks a different question. Five of each team’s seven games this season went over their respective posted totals, a scoring history worth considering. But both latest games went under, and Texas State’s return touchdown helped its final score beyond what its offense produced.
Boise’s long scoring runs and Texas State’s Colorado State outburst show routes to a productive night. The counterweight is consistency: the Bobcats’ latest offensive drop-off and Boise’s three quiet quarters at Washington State give reason to examine sustained scoring rather than lean entirely on those season over counts.
Boise brings the clearer recent winning record and the larger rushing projection. Texas State’s best response is an offense that sustains drives and gets enough from the passing game to complement the run. For readers weighing either market, that offensive contribution is the pivotal issue: it shapes whether the Bobcats can keep the game competitive and whether scoring develops beyond isolated big plays.
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