Utah already beat Pittsburgh once this month, but the Penguins have given this rematch a different feel. After four straight losses, Pittsburgh won its last two games while allowing just two goals. The Mammoth arrive with the better overall record and the favorite’s price, yet their latest loss showed how quickly a productive attack can run into trouble. The question is whether Pittsburgh’s recent improvement in net can hold up against Utah again.
Pittsburgh has changed the recent conversation
The Penguins edged Nashville 3-2 in overtime on Saturday, with Rickard Rakell tying it late in regulation and Ville Koivunen scoring the winner. Arturs Silovs made 24 saves. That followed a 4-0 win over Florida, giving Pittsburgh consecutive wins after a four-game skid.
Silovs’ individual results help explain the turnaround. He stopped all 26 shots against Florida and 24 of 26 against Nashville. Those are encouraging performances from the expected Pittsburgh goalie, especially after he allowed five goals in each of his preceding appearances against Colorado and Utah. Across his five most recent appearances this season, his save percentage is .906. The improvement is real in those last two games; sustaining it against an opponent that recently scored five on him is the next test.
Utah’s last outing went the other way. Minnesota beat the Mammoth 3-1 on Tuesday, scoring twice on the power play before Logan Cooley supplied Utah’s lone goal late. Karel Vejmelka made 27 saves. That result put Utah at three losses in its last five games, even with an 8-5 overall record.
The favorite’s price meets a goaltending counterweight
DraftKings has Utah at -130 and Pittsburgh at +110. The Mammoth’s 6-4 record over their last 10 games compares favorably with Pittsburgh’s 3-7, and Utah won their earlier meeting 5-4. But the Penguins’ two most recent performances make the moneyline discussion more interesting than the season records alone suggest.
Both goalies are expected rather than confirmed starters. If they get the nod, Vejmelka’s recent results also leave Pittsburgh a plausible route to another win. In the four appearances with usable save data among his last five this season, he stopped 81 of 95 shots, a .853 save percentage. His latest 27-save effort was better than that combined figure, but Utah will need more than its one-goal output against Minnesota to make the favorite’s case convincing. For Pittsburgh, another strong Silovs outing would reduce the need to match the Mammoth goal for goal in a repeat of their first meeting.
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Why the total deserves a closer look
The total is 6.5 goals. Eight of Utah’s 13 games this season and seven of Pittsburgh’s 12 have gone over their respective totals. Their earlier nine-goal meeting fits that history, as do Vejmelka’s recent difficulties. Utah’s two power-play goals allowed against Minnesota also show how special teams can change the scoring picture quickly.
The strongest counterweight is Pittsburgh’s recent work in net: Silovs allowed two goals across those last two appearances, and both Penguins games finished under their totals. Utah’s latest game also stayed under. At 6.5, we see Pittsburgh’s ability to sustain that improvement as the central scoring question. The season’s over counts give useful history, but those last two games show why this rematch need not follow the same pattern.
Utah brings the stronger broader results, while Pittsburgh brings a specific, recent reason to question how freely this rematch will score. Silovs’ response to an attack that beat him five times earlier this month is the clearest test of the Penguins’ turnaround—and a useful starting point for assessing both the moneyline and total.
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