Columbus vs. Carolina: The Blue Jackets need more than a fast start

Columbus won in Philadelphia on Tuesday, but the way it reached overtime matters for Thursday’s trip to Carolina. The Blue Jackets surrendered a three-goal lead and spent much of the final two periods defending. Against a Hurricanes team that has won eight of its last 10 games, Columbus needs to turn its quick scoring bursts into a more sustained attack. That’s the challenge behind Carolina’s substantial favorite price.

A win with a warning for Columbus

Kent Johnson scored twice, including the overtime winner, as Columbus edged Philadelphia 4-3. The Blue Jackets built a 3-0 lead with three goals in less than three minutes, then the Flyers outshot them 28-6 across the final two periods.

Johnson and Adam Fantilli give that result a more encouraging side. Johnson assisted on Fantilli’s opener, and the pair combined again on the overtime winner. Those were concrete examples of Columbus creating decisive chances even in a game that got away from it for long stretches. The Blue Jackets have now won consecutive games, following a 2-1 victory over Vegas.

Carolina presents a demanding follow-up. Our projections put the Hurricanes at about 32 shots and Columbus at about 28. That describes a shooting-volume advantage, and it makes the Blue Jackets’ ability to keep generating attempts after an early burst especially relevant. Repeating Tuesday’s late retreat would leave Columbus asking a great deal of its goalie.

Carolina’s price reflects a demanding matchup

DraftKings prices Carolina at -230, with Columbus at +190. The Hurricanes are 10-2-2 overall, while the Blue Jackets are 5-5. Carolina’s recent results offer substance behind its favorite status, though that price still demands a separate judgment about value.

The Hurricanes beat Boston 2-1 on Tuesday on Sebastian Aho’s third-period goal. They also killed two penalties in the final five minutes. That followed a 4-0 win over St. Louis. Carolina has shown it can win with a small margin for error rather than needing a high-scoring night.

Pyotr Kochetkov, the expected Carolina goalie, stopped 38 of 39 shots across those two wins. His five most recent appearances this season produced a .921 save percentage. Columbus’ expected goalie, Jet Greaves, has had a much less even stretch: he stopped all 31 shots against the Rangers, then allowed five on 19 shots against Toronto in his latest appearance. Both goalies are expected rather than confirmed starters. If they get the nod, that range of results is an important uncertainty in the underdog’s case.

A strong favorite doesn’t settle the total

The total is 6.5 goals. Kochetkov’s recent performances and Carolina’s last two wins support a more restrained scoring scenario, particularly if Columbus struggles to sustain its attack. Eight of Carolina’s 14 games this season have finished under their respective totals.

There’s also a credible route to more scoring. Carolina scored six at Vancouver and five at Edmonton earlier in its last 10 games, while Greaves’ latest outing showed how quickly goals can accumulate against Columbus. Tuesday’s Blue Jackets game offered both a rapid scoring burst and a lost lead. At 6.5, the useful distinction is between Carolina limiting Columbus and Carolina pulling the game into a more open exchange; the favorite’s strength alone doesn’t answer that.

Columbus has the recent finishing moments to make this competitive. Its harder task is avoiding another long stretch in which the opponent keeps attacking and it can’t respond. Carolina brings the more consistent results and steadier recent goaltending, so sustained Columbus pressure—not simply another fast start—is the most useful test of the underdog’s chances.

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