Winnipeg gets another look at Florida just three days after the Panthers beat it 5-1, and the lesson from that meeting is hard to miss: Florida scored three times on the power play. The Jets followed it with a 6-4 loss at Tampa Bay on Thursday, extending their winless run to seven games. Florida is a -225 favorite in Friday’s rematch, but Winnipeg’s late scoring response offers a more useful counterpoint than the losing streak alone.
Florida’s power play did the separating Tuesday
The Panthers went 3 for 5 with the man advantage in Winnipeg. Carter Verhaeghe scored twice, Matthew Tkachuk had four assists and Brady Tkachuk added a goal and two assists in the 5-1 win. Florida scored three times in the opening 10:18.
That night brought Florida to 13 power-play goals across its previous eight games. It was a substantial source of offense, and it gives the Jets a specific problem to address beyond simply trying to play better in the rematch.
Our projections give Florida 3.4 power-play opportunities against Winnipeg's 2.7. The Jets need to keep those chances from creating another early gap. Tuesday’s conversion rate set a demanding standard for Florida to repeat.
We grade the Panthers’ defense A-, compared with a C- assessment of Winnipeg’s attack. That’s another obstacle for the visitors, even if they improve their penalty killing. Florida’s own offensive grade is C, so its special-teams success carries particular weight in assessing the favorite.
The Jets found goals, but only after falling well behind
Winnipeg trailed Tampa Bay 5-1 after two periods Thursday. Dylan Samberg and Neal Pionk scored less than two minutes apart in the third, and Kyle Connor made it a one-goal game with 2:49 left before an empty-net goal ended the comeback.
Pionk scored twice and Mark Scheifele had three assists. Four goals were a welcome change after the Jets managed only one in each of their previous two games. Still, the second-period damage was severe: Tampa Bay scored four times, including three goals in the final 4:04.
Stuart Skinner allowed five goals on 21 shots before Nico Daws took over for the third period. Daws stopped all nine shots he faced in his Winnipeg debut. Daws is the expected goalie Friday, but that relief appearance—just under 19 minutes—is his only outing in the available recent Jets sample.
Akira Schmid is expected for Florida after stopping 24 of 25 Winnipeg shots Tuesday. Across his last five Panthers appearances, his save percentage is .893. The latest outing gives Florida encouraging evidence in this matchup, while the broader five-game results are more mixed than that single performance.
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The 6.5 total has competing pressures
DraftKings has the total at 6.5. Nine of Winnipeg's 13 games this season have gone Under, alongside eight of Florida’s 13. Both attacks receive modest grades, and we project about 26 shots for the Jets and 28 for the Panthers. That is a restrained shooting-volume outlook alongside Florida’s strong defensive assessment.
The scoring counterweight is concrete: Florida’s recent power-play production and Winnipeg’s four-goal response Thursday. Daws’ nine-save relief appearance also leaves a very small basis for judging a full-game assignment. Those factors matter more to the total than assuming either Tuesday’s one-goal Jets output or Thursday’s comeback will simply repeat.
The scheduling contrast is clear too. Winnipeg played in Tampa on Thursday and now faces a second straight night of hockey, while Florida hasn’t played since Tuesday. Winnipeg has less time to regroup after Thursday’s second-period breakdown.
Florida has the stronger defensive case and the clearest recent matchup advantage through its power play. Winnipeg’s path is to prevent another early special-teams gap and bring Thursday’s scoring response before the game gets away. That distinction is central to weighing the favorite’s price and the scoring outlook.
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