Toronto scored four goals in Seattle and still lost. Auston Matthews finished with three points; Nick Paul finished with none. Their point unders carry the same −155 price here, but ask for very different things from two different roles.
Starting with a hypothetical Vancouver win over Toronto, these Canucks parlay picks compare Matthews staying below two points, Paul finishing without a point and Elias Pettersson recording one shot on goal. The two −155 unders need different judgments: Matthews can contribute once, while any goal or assist from Paul beats his limit.
Canucks parlay picks: a shot and two distinct point limits
The Canucks are 3–11–1 and the Maple Leafs are 7–6–2. The table covers completed regular-season and playoff appearances from October 1, 2025 through October 30, 2026, with matching dates, current club and participation rules for the all-game comparisons. Pettersson’s winning record includes three Vancouver wins this season. Paul’s entire Toronto history is his 15 appearances this season. These historical rates aren’t probabilities for Saturday.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All current-team games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Pettersson 1+ shot on goal |
−700 | 95.7% 22 of 23 Canucks wins |
82.0% 73 of 89 appearances |
| Auston Matthews Under 1.5 points |
−155 | 85.7% 36 of 42 Maple Leafs losses |
76.0% 57 of 75 appearances |
| Nick Paul Under 0.5 points |
−155 | 87.5% 7 of 8 Maple Leafs losses |
73.3% 11 of 15 appearances |
Elias Pettersson: 1+ shot on goal at −700
Pettersson has registered a shot in 22 of his 23 Canucks winning appearances, compared with 73 of 89 games overall. All three current Vancouver wins cleared one. Two of those wins finished with exactly one shot, leaving little room for a higher target.
Two shots was −155 and covered eleven of those 23 wins, eleven fewer than one. The much better payout asks for a markedly different result. His one shot in the September win over Edmonton and one in October’s win over Calgary would have cleared the lower target and missed two.
His last five shot totals are zero, one, one, two and three. That sequence includes both a miss at one and several games that stop short of two. He has registered a shot in 13 of his 15 current appearances.
The zero against Carolina came with an assist in 18:41 of ice time. It is a useful distinction: helping a goal happen does not count as a shot on goal. The same issue appeared in his only winning miss in the longer window, a November win over Nashville where he recorded two assists but no shots in 22:44.
In a previous Toronto meeting, he also recorded an assist without a shot in 18:48. Vancouver lost that game, but the performance shows why a point-producing night still may not supply the particular contribution this prop needs.
His current average of about twenty minutes is slightly above roughly nineteen in the older Vancouver sample. That gives context to his regular workload, without guaranteeing a shot. Even substantial ice time did not rescue the Nashville miss.
One shot leaves much more room than two at a much smaller payout. The −700 price is the main cost of choosing that cushion. It fits a Vancouver view that needs a small shooting contribution from Pettersson, with the assist-only games kept in sight.
Auston Matthews: under 1.5 points at −155
This under allows Matthews to record one point. It needs him to stay below two, rather than disappear from the scoresheet. It cleared in 36 of his 42 Maple Leafs losing appearances and 57 of 75 games overall.
The latest loss is a direct warning. Matthews scored a goal and added two assists in 20:08 against Seattle as Toronto lost 5–4. Under 1.5 would have missed. Four Maple Leafs goals left plenty of room for his individual production even though the team lost.
In the preceding loss to Calgary, he recorded one assist in nineteen minutes. That would have stayed under. The difference between those two defeats is the difference this target needs: one point can clear, while a second changes the outcome.
Across his last five appearances, Matthews has recorded two, zero, one, one and three points. Three of those five stayed under. Six of Toronto’s eight losses this season did so, a less consistent record than the longer losing-game percentage.
His ice time has remained close to the older sample: about 21 minutes per appearance in both. This under cannot rely on him receiving a small role. The Seattle miss came with ordinary playing time and four shots on goal.
He finished with one assist in each of last season’s two meetings with Vancouver, despite registering five and seven shots. Both were Toronto wins, so they do not add to the losing-game record. They do illustrate that substantial shooting can coexist with a single point.
At −155, the allowance for one point makes this a different request from Paul’s no-point target at the same price. Balance that room against Matthews’ latest three-point defeat and the fact that a Canucks win would not prevent Toronto from scoring several goals.
Nick Paul: under 0.5 points at −155
Paul needs to finish without a goal or an assist. This under cleared in seven of Toronto’s eight losses during his 15 Maple Leafs appearances, compared with eleven of all 15 games. That is his complete Toronto sample here; it does not include his appearances for another club.
His last five games have all finished without a point. They include three Toronto wins and the recent defeats to Calgary and Seattle. He played between 15:59 and 17:35 in those five, so the recent zeros came through regular appearances.
The losing-game miss was against Vegas in October. Paul scored a goal in 17:05 as Toronto lost 4–3. Under 0.5 points would have missed even though he did not record an assist.
His assist under 0.5 was −320 and cleared all eight losses, one more than the points under. The Vegas goal explains that difference. Paying the shorter −320 price removes the risk of a goal-only game; under points at −155 still loses to one goal or one assist.
His other point-producing Toronto games include an assist against the Islanders, two assists against Colorado and a goal against San Jose. All three were Maple Leafs wins. They remain in the all-game comparison and show both ways this no-point target can fail.
Paul is listed on Toronto’s second line, with his current ice time averaging about sixteen minutes. There is no older Toronto workload in this window to compare it with. The useful evidence is his actual current role, the five recent zeros and the one goal that broke the under in a loss.
The −155 price offers a larger payout than his assist under, while making a stricter demand. His smaller eight-loss sample deserves more restraint than Matthews’ longer history. Choose between the two limits according to the contribution you expect each player to make, rather than treating identical prices as identical risks.
Match the contribution to your Vancouver view
If you want room for a Toronto player to reach the scoresheet, Matthews’ limit allows one point at −155. Paul’s identically priced under allows none, though his −320 assist under would have survived the Vegas goal. Pettersson’s one-shot target buys a different kind of room at a much shorter price. Compare the contribution each price permits; the separate records don’t establish a combined chance of clearing.
Prices can change. Check current offers on the Canucks–Maple Leafs matchup page, or explore more of our NHL coverage.
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