Cameron Boozer reaching nine rebounds and Karlo Matkovic finishing with fewer than six ask for different contributions alongside a Memphis win over New Orleans on Monday. Boozer has reached nine in five of the Grizzlies’ six wins. Matkovic has stayed below six in 37 of the Pelicans’ 41 losses in his longer New Orleans record.
The catches matter as much as those fractions. Memphis is 6–0, so Boozer’s winning-game record is also his entire six-game record. And Matkovic just grabbed 10 boards against Atlanta. Boozer offers Memphis production to support the moneyline; Matkovic offers a New Orleans under with a longer losing-game record. Both need a closer look than the headline percentages alone.
This edition starts with a hypothetical Grizzlies win at FedExForum on November 2, with tipoff scheduled for 8 p.m. Eastern. Memphis was −198 on the DraftKings moneyline when checked Monday morning. Here’s how the two rebound choices compare.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer 9+ rebounds |
−134 | 83.3% 5 of 6 Grizzlies wins |
83.3% 5 of 6 appearances |
| Karlo Matkovic under 5.5 rebounds |
−139 | 90.2% 37 of 41 Pelicans losses |
77.6% 52 of 67 appearances |
Individual DraftKings player prices checked November 2 at 9:18 a.m. Eastern; prices can move. Boozer’s record covers his six Memphis appearances this season. Matkovic’s covers his New Orleans appearances from the start of the 2025–26 season through the latest completed game. Each all-game column uses the same player, dates and participation as its result column. These are historical hit rates, not the probability of a future bet or parlay winning.
Cameron Boozer: 9+ rebounds (−134)
Boozer has made a busy scoring night optional for this target. He opened with seven points and 11 rebounds against Utah, and most recently finished with 27 points and nine boards in Memphis’ 136–105 win over Sacramento. Both nights count the same toward a nine-rebound milestone.
His six rebound totals are 11, 13, 11, 7, 12 and 9. That’s five clears in six appearances, or 83.3%. The latest nine came in 26 minutes; the 12 before it came in 28 minutes against Portland. Those games make the target interesting without requiring him to play every minute of a close finish.
The saved morning prices help explain the nine-board choice. DraftKings had 8+ rebounds at −219 and 10+ at +116. Eight cleared in the same five games as nine, so the lower milestone bought no extra historical hit in this small sample. Ten cleared in four of six: it would have lost on that latest nine-board Sacramento performance. Nine at −134 sits between a more expensive cushion that hasn’t changed the results so far and a bigger return that asks for another rebound.
There is already a clear warning against treating playing time as a guarantee. Boozer had seven rebounds in 31 minutes when Memphis beat Utah 110–105 on October 26. Even a full workload can leave him two boards short, and the six-game sample is far too small to turn 83.3% into a reliable forecast.
He is projected to start at power forward, with Zach Edey at center and Cedric Coward also in the expected five. Those are expected assignments, not a confirmed lineup. Coward’s own strong recent rebounding means this isn’t a picture of one Memphis player collecting every available miss. The practical case for Boozer is his repeated nine-plus production at the quoted price, with his seven-board game as a reminder of the downside.
Karlo Matkovic: under 5.5 rebounds (−139)
Matkovic offers the opposing-team route: five rebounds or fewer in a game you’re already considering as a Pelicans loss. He finished below 5.5 in 37 of 41 New Orleans losses, a 90.2% hit rate, compared with 52 of 67 appearances overall, or 77.6%. The losing-game record is stronger than his matched baseline, although that association doesn’t establish what causes his rebound totals.
This season’s losing-game totals are four rebounds in nine minutes at Utah, none in eight minutes at Denver, and three in 18 minutes in the return game against Denver. Two of those three hits came in single-digit minutes. That makes the current 3-for-3 less reassuring if you expect him to play a larger part on Monday.
His latest outing is the reason to be selective. Matkovic pulled down 10 rebounds in 18 minutes in the 121–99 win over Atlanta on October 31. That misses this under by a wide margin. Across all five of his current-season appearances, the under is four for five. He also played 28 minutes and collected four rebounds in the previous win over Sacramento, illustrating how much the output can vary even across his recent minutes.
Yves Missi is listed out with a knee injury, while Matkovic and Derik Queen are among New Orleans’ center options. We are not assuming a starting assignment or a fixed minutes split. Missi’s absence makes that allocation especially relevant: an under supported partly by short historical appearances needs another look if Matkovic’s expected workload expands.
Nor does a New Orleans loss protect the bet. His latest losing-game miss in this window was six rebounds in 17 minutes against Toronto on March 27, 2026, when the Pelicans lost 119–106. Six is enough to beat an under 5.5, even without a long night on the floor. At −139, this is an option for someone comfortable with that rotation uncertainty, not a promise that a Memphis win will keep him quiet.
Choose the rebound story that fits
Boozer’s option asks him to sustain a productive start; Matkovic’s asks a Pelicans rebound total to stay modest despite a recent 10-board game and an unsettled center rotation. They share the same game and its pool of rebound chances, so their historical percentages should never be multiplied into a combined chance of success. You can prefer one, or pass on both if the lineup or prices make the reasoning less appealing.
Check the live Pelicans–Grizzlies matchup for the latest game context and the NBA page for more league coverage before making that choice.
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