Frank Nazar scored twice in the third period Wednesday, but Chicago had already spent much of the night chasing Florida after falling behind 3–0. Tampa Bay built the same lead in its latest game. For the Blackhawks on Thursday, the challenge is getting Connor Bedard and Nazar involved before they need another comeback. An earlier goal would give the heavy underdog a much different game to work with.
Tampa Bay can make Chicago chase again
Brayden Point scored twice in the first period against Detroit, both goals set up by Nikita Kucherov. Anthony Cirelli made it 3–0 in the second before the Lightning held on for a 4–2 win, their seventh straight at home. Detroit got back within a goal and pressed with its goalie pulled, but Ryan McDonagh’s empty-netter finished it with one second left.
Our shot projections give Tampa Bay about 29 to Chicago’s 24. That would leave the Blackhawks fewer opportunities to make up ground if they fall behind again. At Thursday morning’s snapshot, DraftKings had Tampa Bay at -395 and Chicago at +310. Tampa Bay’s stronger attack helps explain its status as the favorite, but at that price, a win is already heavily expected. Chicago also heads into the game on consecutive nights after playing in Florida on Wednesday.
Chicago’s answer showed up late
Bedard had two assists and Nazar scored twice in Chicago’s 5–3 loss to Florida, including a short-handed breakaway. Nazar’s second goal brought the Blackhawks within one with 3:51 left, before Florida added an empty-netter. Chicago has gone 1–6–1 in its last eight, but Wednesday offered a glimpse of the offense that can make a late lead uncomfortable.
Bedard’s passing and Nazar’s breakaway helped Chicago create goals even in a game it had spent much of the night trailing. Getting that production while the score is level would let the Blackhawks play for a lead instead of having to open up to erase one. Watch whether they can create chances near the net early, before Tampa Bay has a cushion.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Blackhawks vs. Lightning picks.
Unlock our model's best bets for this matchup, plus projections, trends, and matchup analysis. Start with a free 7-day trial, then save 20% every month with code PREVIEW20.
Goalie uncertainty matters at 6.5
Arvid Soderblom and Andrei Vasilevskiy are listed as possible starters for Chicago and Tampa Bay, respectively. Neither is confirmed. Soderblom stopped 82.9% of shots across his three appearances this season, while Vasilevskiy stopped 87.1% across his last five. Those small samples leave room for goals if they start, though Chicago still needs to create enough chances to test the Lightning goalie.
The late rallies also show why the way a game unfolds matters at 6.5. Chicago’s loss finished with eight goals, while Tampa Bay and Detroit combined for six despite an empty-netter. A chase can add scoring chances at both ends, but it can also fizzle if the trailing team cannot sustain pressure. Tampa Bay has the projected shot-volume advantage. Chicago’s ability to contribute offense before the third period is the more revealing thing to watch for both the upset chance and the total.
We break down every matchup
Check the NHL betting board for current odds and matchup projections across Thursday’s games.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
More matchups to explore
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.