Derrick Henry had at least 23 carries in each of Baltimore’s four wins this season. The Ravens haven’t won since that stretch, and his latest outing ended with 11 attempts. If you’re considering a Baltimore win against Jacksonville, getting back to a busy Henry night is one recognizable route.
Backing Baltimore leads us to Henry’s workload in Ravens wins and Trevor Lawrence’s rushing attempts in Jaguars losses. For these Ravens parlay picks, Henry needs at least 18 carries; Lawrence’s under allows no more than three. You can look for a busy night from the home running back or fewer runs from the visiting quarterback.
Baltimore’s quarterback change matters to the comparison. Joe Fagnano is projected to start after attempting 21 passes against Buffalo. Henry’s winning-game history below comes from a different quarterback mix, so it describes a possible route rather than a repeatable formula.
Ravens parlay picks to compare
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All appearances |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry Over 17.5 carries 2025–26 regular seasons |
−109 | 83.3% 10 of 12 Ravens wins |
60.0% 15 of 25 appearances |
| Trevor Lawrence Under 3.5 carries 2025–26 regular seasons |
−129 | 83.3% 5 of 6 Jaguars losses |
50.0% 12 of 24 appearances |
Both rows cover the 2025 and 2026 regular seasons with each player’s current club. Lawrence’s six Jacksonville losses are a particularly small sample.
Derrick Henry over 17.5 carries
Henry’s workload gives this option its shape. He had 24 carries against Indianapolis, 26 against Dallas, 23 against Tennessee and 24 against Atlanta in Baltimore’s wins this season. Eighteen carries would clear the offered line, leaving some room below each of those winning-game totals.
His recent losses show why the result matters to the story without guaranteeing the workload. He had 17 attempts against Cleveland, another 17 against Cincinnati and 11 against Buffalo. Even a regular starter can finish below this target when the offense takes a different path.
DraftKings offered −109 for the carry over and −110 for over 67.5 rushing yards. The prices are similar, but the demands are different: carries ask for opportunities, while the yardage bet also asks Henry to turn them into enough ground gained. You can prefer workload without assuming Baltimore will run efficiently.
Last season, the carry over landed in six of eight Ravens wins, compared with 11 of 17 appearances overall. Both misses in victories came with just 11 carries, against Cleveland and Cincinnati. This season it landed in all four wins and four of eight appearances overall, but none of those wins came with Fagnano leading the offense. That leaves a real question about how Baltimore will move the ball and sustain Henry’s opportunities.
Trevor Lawrence under 3.5 rushing attempts
Lawrence carried twice in Jacksonville’s loss at Denver and three times in its loss to Houston this season. He’s also stayed at three attempts or fewer in six of his seven appearances overall. The under therefore leaves room for Jacksonville to lose while Lawrence remains fairly close to his usual recent rushing workload.
The one current-season miss came in a win over New England, when he had four carries. Across the older part of this comparison, a five-carry loss to Houston also beat the line. You’re allowing three attempts, not betting that Lawrence won’t run at all.
At −129, this under pays less on the same individual stake than Henry’s −109 over. The two-season record includes only six Jaguars losses. Last year, he stayed below four carries in three of four defeats but only six of 17 appearances overall. This season’s six-of-seven record across results gives you a different reason to consider it: low carry counts have been common for him even when Jacksonville wins.
Which workload fits your view of the game?
Henry’s over fits a Ravens win built around getting him the ball repeatedly. Lawrence’s under gives you an opposing-player option that doesn’t require Baltimore to stop every scramble. Choose the demand that matches your view of the game; the separate records don’t supply a joint probability, and any related-leg parlay price has to come from the sportsbook.
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