Three of Denver’s four wins this season have ended with Nikola Jokić on exactly ten assists. He had eleven in the other. If you’re backing the Nuggets against Indiana, that makes his passing worth a look—and makes the difference between nine and ten assists worth pricing carefully.
These Nuggets parlay picks also leave room for Pacers contributions. Andrew Nembhard has kept scoring in Indiana losses, while Aaron Nesmith has usually finished with three rebounds or fewer. Side & Support compares Jokić in Denver wins and the two Pacers in Indiana defeats, with each player’s all-game record alongside it. You can choose the contribution that fits your view of a Denver win without taking every option.
Nuggets parlay picks: passing, opposing scoring and a rebound under
The table covers each player’s current-club appearances in the 2026–27 regular season. There are only four Denver wins and four or five Indiana losses in these comparisons; the longer records below are a useful check on those early results.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 assists |
−126 | 100.0% 4 of 4 DEN wins |
71.4% 5 of 7 appearances |
| Andrew Nembhard 15+ points |
−173 | 100.0% 4 of 4 IND losses |
85.7% 6 of 7 appearances |
| Aaron Nesmith Under 3.5 rebounds |
−132 | 80.0% 4 of 5 IND losses |
85.7% 6 of 7 appearances |
Nikola Jokić: over 9.5 assists at −126
Jokić’s latest win shows why this can fit a Denver-first view without requiring him to sacrifice his scoring. He put up 32 points and eleven assists against Toronto in 30 minutes. In the other three Denver victories, he reached ten assists each time.
That leaves a real choice on the ladder: nine or more assists was −206, while over 9.5 was −126. Paying more for nine gives you a one-assist cushion, but it wouldn’t have changed the outcome in any of Denver’s wins so far. The lighter-priced option needs ten.
Four wins are a small starting point, though. Across his recorded Denver appearances from October 2025 onward, he reached ten assists in 34 of 47 wins and 47 of 72 games overall, including this season. His eight assists in the recent loss to Portland also show that 36 minutes on the floor needn’t get him there. The current winning run is encouraging; the longer record is considerably less consistent.
Andrew Nembhard: 15+ points at −173
A Denver win doesn’t require every Pacers scorer to struggle. Nembhard scored 22 against Miami and 23 against Brooklyn in his latest two appearances in Indiana defeats. He followed those with 22 in the win over Memphis, taking 15 shots in 38 minutes.
With Tyrese Haliburton out with a hamstring injury, Nembhard has more of Indiana’s playmaking to shoulder. T.J. McConnell is also questionable for a possible season debut after a hamstring injury; his return could spread the ball-handling work. The scoring line still matters. His points over 16.5 was −109; the 15+ option costs more at −173 and would also have covered his 16-point game in the loss to Dallas. Fifteen points means fifteen or more, rather than needing seventeen.
His lone current-season scoring miss at this line was a 14-point night in a win at Brooklyn. A recent neck injury kept him out against Atlanta, but he was back for that 38-minute outing against Memphis. The return matters when you’re weighing how much of his recent scoring to carry into this game.
The older Indiana record is much less persuasive: 15 points in 29 of 48 losses and 41 of 64 appearances from October 2025 onward. Today’s case rests on his current role and recent scoring, with just four losses in the table—not on a long-established pattern of producing whenever Indiana loses.
Aaron Nesmith: under 3.5 rebounds at −132
Nesmith’s rebound under offers a different way to look at Indiana. He had three boards in 30 minutes against Brooklyn and two in 30 minutes against Memphis. Those games ended with different team results, which fits the table: staying at three or fewer has been common in his games generally, not more common in Pacers losses.
The important counterexample is the loss to Dallas, when he grabbed four rebounds in only 20 minutes. Extra playing time isn’t the only way this under can lose. He sat out the Atlanta game for hamstring injury management before returning for those 30 minutes against Memphis.
From October 2025 onward, the same under occurred in 25 of 40 Indiana losses and 29 of 52 recorded appearances overall. That older record is weaker than the early-season run. At −132, you’re weighing his recent low rebound totals against a line that leaves no room for a fourth board.
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Choose what you expect the players to supply
Jokić’s assist line is the direct Denver-win comparison. Nembhard gives you an opposing scoring option if you expect Indiana to keep leaning on him, while Nesmith’s under depends on a different part of the box score. Taking both Pacers options still leaves you exposed to the same Indiana rotation; the separate records aren’t a price or probability for a combined bet.
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