Chase Brown has reached 30 rushing yards in all eleven Cincinnati wins across the past two seasons. But two recent victories left him on 39 yards, making the choice between a 30-yard and 40-yard target worth a close look if you’re backing the Bengals against Atlanta.
These Bengals parlay picks also examine Joe Burrow’s completion totals in Cincinnati wins and Bijan Robinson’s rushing in Falcons losses. Each is compared with his full record over the same period. That gives you a rushing contribution to back and two totals to limit, with different prices and different ways they can go wrong.
Bengals parlay picks: a rushing floor and two unders
The table covers regular-season appearances with each player’s current club in the 2025 and 2026 seasons. The winning and losing samples are still modest: eleven for Brown, ten for Burrow and fourteen for Robinson. Individual DraftKings prices are November 7 Eastern snapshots and can change.
| Player & prop | Odds | CIN wins / ATL losses | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown 30+ rushing yards |
−400 | 100.0% 11 of 11 CIN wins · 2025–26 |
83.3% 20 of 24 appearances · 2025–26 |
| Joe Burrow Under 25.5 pass completions |
+102 | 90.0% 9 of 10 CIN wins · 2025–26 |
73.3% 11 of 15 appearances · 2025–26 |
| Bijan Robinson Under 97.5 rushing yards |
−111 | 85.7% 12 of 14 ATL losses · 2025–26 |
72.0% 18 of 25 appearances · 2025–26 |
Chase Brown 30+ rushing yards (−400)
Brown finished with 39 rushing yards in each of Cincinnati’s wins over Miami and Baltimore. Both would cover the 30-yard milestone and miss the 40-yard option at −198. That’s the practical reason to consider paying −400 for the lower target.
Asking for 25 yards was even more expensive at −620. It covered the same eleven Cincinnati wins as 30 yards, while 40 yards covered nine. Across all 24 games, those targets reached 21, 20 and 17 games respectively. This season, the choice is sharper: Brown reached thirty in all five wins, but forty in only three. Across all seven games this season, the thirty-yard target reached six and the forty-yard target reached four.
He ran for 55 yards on twelve carries in the latest overtime win over Tennessee, adding eight catches for another 46 yards. Those receptions show his involvement, but they don’t count toward a rushing-only prop. In the loss to Jacksonville, he caught eleven passes for 71 yards and still finished with just ten rushing yards on nine carries.
Brown is listed atop Cincinnati’s backfield. The low rushing request is the attraction here, but −400 buys a modest payout and eleven winning games isn’t a guarantee of another thirty-yard outing.
Joe Burrow under 25.5 completions (+102)
Burrow’s recent win over Baltimore shows how this under can fit a productive passing game. He threw four touchdowns while completing 22 passes. A Cincinnati win can still include plenty of scoring without requiring twenty-six completed passes.
The attempt under, fewer than 37 throws, was −104. Burrow’s completion under at +102 covered nine of ten Cincinnati wins, compared with eight for the attempt under. Across the same fifteen passing appearances, those records were eleven and nine respectively. The extra winning game was last season’s victory over Baltimore, when he completed 24 of 46 attempts. You’re limiting the number of catches, leaving room for more incompletions if he throws often.
The latest game is the obvious challenge. Burrow completed 38 of 48 passes for 462 yards and five touchdowns in the 43–36 overtime win over Tennessee. That is the only winning miss in the table’s longer sample, and it brings this season’s winning record down to four of five, compared with four of seven games overall.
The +102 price is worth comparing if you expect Cincinnati to win with less passing volume than last week’s shootout. His 28 completions against Pittsburgh and 39 against Jacksonville also show how quickly a busy passing game can get past this number. Those were losses, but they’re part of the broader record you’re weighing.
Bijan Robinson under 97.5 rushing yards (−111)
Robinson has finished below 98 rushing yards in all five Atlanta losses this season. That hasn’t required the Falcons to stop handing him the ball: he had 21 carries for 83 yards in the loss to Pittsburgh and nineteen for 76 in the latest defeat at Tampa Bay.
Keeping the bet to rushing yards matters. Robinson also caught eight passes for 90 yards against Pittsburgh, taking his combined total to 173. The rushing-plus-receiving under at 130.5 yards was −113 and covered only eleven of fourteen Atlanta losses in the longer sample, compared with twelve for the rushing under. Across all 25 appearances, the combined under reached fourteen games and the rushing under reached eighteen. The rushing under at −111 lets him do more damage as a receiver.
There are clear rushing counterexamples. Last season’s losses to Carolina and the Jets included 104 and 142 yards respectively, both on 23 carries. This season he also ran for 194 against Green Bay and 145 against New Orleans in Atlanta wins. A Falcons defeat has often gone with a lower rushing total, but it doesn’t put a ceiling on his ability to break off yards.
Atlanta placed Brian Robinson Jr. on injured reserve with a hamstring injury Saturday after he had already missed two games. Khalil Herbert is listed behind Bijan, so that absence isn’t entirely new to the recent record. Still, the older carry split deserves less weight with a different backfield available.
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Choose how you want to support Cincinnati
Brown’s thirty-yard target offers the lower rushing request at the heaviest price. Moving to forty offers a larger payout, but the two recent 39-yard wins show exactly what you’d give up. Burrow’s completion under takes a different route at +102, with last week’s high-volume win as the most immediate warning.
If your Cincinnati-win view also includes Atlanta getting some of its production through the air, Bijan’s rushing under leaves his receiving work alone. You can choose the route that fits your view of the matchup without treating the three separate records as a combined success rate.
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