Jonathan Taylor rushed for 68 yards when the Colts beat Houston and 95 when they beat Washington. Last week, he managed 23 on eight carries in a 42–7 loss at Jacksonville. If you’re backing Indianapolis against Dallas, that swing in workload is the place to start with these Colts parlay picks.
Side & Support Parlay Plays looks for player contributions that have accompanied your chosen winner. Here, Taylor’s rushing yards and Tyler Warren’s receiving yards are measured in Colts wins; Dak Prescott’s passing touchdowns are measured in Cowboys losses. Their full records over the same period help you judge how much those results differ, while the actual offers let you choose your route.
The records below cover 2025 and 2026 regular-season appearances with each player’s current team. Indianapolis has only two wins this season, so the older wins supply much of the context. Individual DraftKings prices were captured on November 8 and can change.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All appearances |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor Over 64.5 rushing yards 2025–2026 IND |
−110 | 100.0% 10 of 10 IND wins |
76.0% 19 of 25 appearances |
| Tyler Warren 40+ receiving yards 2025–2026 IND |
−123 | 90.0% 9 of 10 IND wins |
56.5% 13 of 23 appearances |
| Dak Prescott Under 2.5 passing touchdowns 2025–2026 DAL |
−193 | 92.9% 13 of 14 DAL losses |
72.0% 18 of 25 appearances |
Jonathan Taylor: over 64.5 rushing yards
Taylor has reached 65 rushing yards in all ten Colts wins across these two seasons. This year, he’s reached it in six of eight appearances overall, including both wins. The useful part is how this year’s two wins got there: 23 carries against Houston and 20 against Washington. If your Indianapolis view starts with its lead back getting that sort of work, the rushing over gives you a direct way to express it.
The main over 64.5 was −110. Moving to a 70+ milestone offered +110, but two of those wins fell short: 66 yards against Las Vegas last season and 68 against Houston this year. At 70, the record becomes eight of ten wins and 17 of 25 appearances overall. A 60+ milestone cost −135 and reached the same ten wins and 19 of 25 appearances as 65 yards. You’re choosing how much cushion to buy, even where the historical winning record stays the same.
Last week is the reason to take that choice seriously. Taylor had only eight carries for 23 yards, while Seth McGowan and DJ Giddens also got rushing work. Taylor remains the expected lead back ahead of McGowan, but a Colts-win premise doesn’t promise him 20 carries. His 95 yards on 18 attempts at Minnesota the week before also came in a loss: the workload and production matter on their own.
Tyler Warren: 40+ receiving yards
Warren’s 41-yard game in the Washington win makes a small difference in the offer worth noticing. The 40+ milestone was −123; over 41.5 was −110. That game clears the milestone and misses the main over. Across the two seasons, moving from 40 to at least 42 yards drops the record from nine of ten Colts wins to eight of ten, and from 13 of 23 appearances overall to 12 of 23.
Going the other way, 30+ yards cost −227 and reached all ten wins and 15 of 23 appearances overall. The extra protection would have mattered in his 38-yard winning game against Tennessee in September 2025, the one miss at 40. This year’s other Colts win brought 55 yards against Houston on nine catches and ten targets.
Targets haven’t always turned into yards, though. Warren also drew ten targets at Jacksonville last week and finished with four catches for 18 yards in his return from a two-game absence with a groin injury. He has reached 40 yards in three of his six recorded receiving appearances this season. That leaves the two wins as encouraging examples, not a broad current-season pattern.
Warren is the expected starting tight end, with Alec Pierce on injured reserve and Josh Downs and Keenan Allen in the receiving group. Daniel Jones remains the expected starting quarterback after being benched late in the Jacksonville loss, adding another reason to weigh the recent offense alongside the older wins. Warren’s receiving yards and Taylor’s rushing yards draw on the same Colts offense, so they’re choices to weigh together rather than independent chances to multiply.
Dak Prescott: under 2.5 passing touchdowns
This under lets Dallas have some passing success. Prescott can throw two touchdowns and still finish below the line. He has finished with two or fewer passing touchdowns in 13 of the Cowboys’ 14 losses over these two seasons, including all five losses this year. This season’s full record is six of eight appearances.
The older exception was Carolina in October 2025, when he threw three touchdowns in a loss. His recent Philadelphia win offers another reminder of the risk: three touchdown passes came on just 27 attempts and 212 yards. Limiting his passing yardage isn’t the same thing as keeping him below a third scoring pass.
At −193, you’re paying more than for either Colts yardage option to allow those first two touchdowns. His latest loss against Arizona brought one passing touchdown on 29 attempts, plus a rushing score that doesn’t count toward this prop. He also threw four in this season’s Washington win. The choice depends on how you see Dallas finishing drives, not simply on whether Prescott throws often.
George Pickens is questionable with a hamstring injury, Jake Ferguson is questionable with an ankle injury and KaVontae Turpin is out. Indianapolis also has safety A.J. Haulcy, cornerback Justin Walley and linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither out. Those availability issues change the matchup around this history; neither receiving uncertainty nor a Colts-win view assures a low passing-touchdown total.
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Choosing your Colts parlay picks
Taylor’s over is the clearest route if you expect Indianapolis to lean on its lead back. Warren gives you a receiving choice where paying slightly more for 40 yards preserves a recent winning example. Prescott’s under is a different decision about Dallas’ scoring passes. You can choose the contribution that fits your game view without taking all three or treating their separate records as a combined parlay probability.
Follow the live Cowboys–Colts matchup for the game lines, and find more ideas in our NFL articles.
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