Forty receiving yards has left Christian Watson a little room to spare in some Packers wins: he had 41 against the Jets and 47 against Tampa Bay this season. Both would miss a 50-yard target. For a Green Bay upset of New England, that gap in the offered ladder is a useful place to start these Packers parlay picks.
Side & Support Parlay Plays follows your chosen winner into the player records. Here, that means comparing Watson in Packers wins, and Drake Maye and DeMario Douglas in Patriots losses, with each player’s record across all results. Watson’s yards, a Maye interception and Douglas’s receiving under give you three different contributions to consider around a Green Bay win.
Packers parlay picks for a Green Bay win
The table covers each player’s current club in the 2025 and 2026 regular seasons. Ten Packers wins and six Patriots losses are still small samples; this season accounts for five and three of those games, respectively. Individual DraftKings prices were captured Sunday morning and can change.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All appearances |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson 40+ receiving yards |
−394 | 100.0% 10 of 10 GB wins 2025–26 regular season |
88.9% 16 of 18 appearances 2025–26 regular season |
| Drake Maye Over 0.5 interceptions |
−115 | 100.0% 6 of 6 NE losses 2025–26 regular season |
52.0% 13 of 25 appearances 2025–26 regular season |
| DeMario Douglas Under 39.5 receiving yards |
−114 | 100.0% 6 of 6 NE losses 2025–26 regular season |
75.0% 18 of 24 appearances 2025–26 regular season |
Christian Watson: 40+ receiving yards
Watson has reached 40 yards in every Packers win in this two-season sample, and in all eight games this season regardless of the result. That makes this more of a modest contribution to carry into a Green Bay-win view than a prediction that he needs a big afternoon for the Packers to win.
The price is the tradeoff. Forty yards costs −394, so the return is smaller than at 50+ for −244. But 50 yards reached only six of ten Packers wins across these two seasons, and eleven of eighteen appearances overall. Along with this year’s 41 and 47, last season’s winning performances of 46 against the Giants and 49 against Minnesota fell between the two offers. Moving down again to 30+ costs −700 without adding another successful regular-season appearance in this sample.
His latest game was much bigger: eight catches on ten targets for 113 yards against Carolina. He also sustained a broken rib in that win. Watson was limited at all three practices this week but has no game designation for Sunday. The lower receiving target is worth comparing with the higher ladder, but it doesn’t remove that health concern.
There are misses outside the winning record, too. He had 29 yards against Denver and 17 against Chicago in regular-season losses last year. His separate playoff appearance, another loss to Chicago, produced 36 yards and would also miss 40. Those games matter when judging how much you’re willing to pay for a smaller target.
Drake Maye: over 0.5 interceptions
Maye has thrown an interception in each of New England’s six regular-season losses across the two seasons. This year’s losses brought three against Seattle, two against Jacksonville and one against Chicago. One mistake is enough for this −115 offer; asking for two at +391 would have reached only two of the six losses, and two of his twenty-five appearances overall.
That losing-game pattern stands out against his broader record, but his recent passing has been cleaner. In the last four games, Maye threw no interceptions against Las Vegas, the Jets or Miami, with one against Chicago in between. Last week’s Miami win included 16 completions on 20 attempts for 199 yards and two touchdowns. This option needs a turnover from a quarterback who has recently been avoiding them.
Green Bay also comes in without Micah Parsons, who is out with an ACL injury, while cornerback Keisean Nixon is questionable with a groin injury. Don’t read the older Patriots losses as a promise about what this particular Packers defense will force. The bet fits a view that a New England mistake helps Green Bay; the six-game record doesn’t establish that the mistake is coming.
Maye’s playoffs are kept separate from the table. He threw one interception in each win over the Chargers and Texans, none in the win over Denver and two in the loss to Seattle. An interception has accompanied wins as well as losses, which is another reason to use this as one possible piece of your game view.
DeMario Douglas: under 39.5 receiving yards
Douglas’s recent games give you a clear reason to be careful with the under. He has topped this line in three of his last four outings, with 65 yards against Las Vegas, 86 against the Jets and 76 against Miami. The exception was 23 in the loss to Chicago. Last week’s 76 came on only three targets and included a 48-yard touchdown, so a small number of chances can still beat this line.
His other two losses this season produced 20 yards against Seattle and 38 against Jacksonville. All three stayed below 39.5, as did his three losing appearances last year. Across all results, though, he has stayed under in five of eight games this season, compared with eighteen of twenty-four over the two seasons. The recent improvement is part of the decision, not something the perfect losing-game record cancels out.
The −114 yardage under also asks something different from under 3.5 catches at −109. Douglas caught only one pass for those 38 Jacksonville yards, but five passes for his 20 yards against Seattle. The catches under missed that Seattle loss and reached five of the six losses overall, along with twenty of twenty-four appearances across all results. The yardage option leaves room for several short catches; it gives you less protection against one long play.
New England’s available receivers add another complication. A.J. Brown is out, Mack Hollins remains questionable after being activated from injured reserve with a calf injury, and Hunter Henry is questionable with a foot injury. That leaves room for Douglas to play a larger part. His separate Super Bowl appearance also challenges the regular-season loss pattern: five catches for 45 yards against Seattle would have beaten this under. This is a view on how productive his chances will be, not a bet that he won’t get any.
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Choose the part of a Packers win you expect
Watson’s ladder is a choice about how much payout to give up for room below 50 yards, with his ribs still part of the picture. The New England options suit a more defensive view of Green Bay’s upset, but Maye’s cleaner recent passing and Douglas’s big plays give you reasons to be selective. They share the same passing offense, and their separate records don’t tell you how often both bets land together. You can use one idea without taking all three; a sportsbook can price related legs differently.
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