Aaron Jones ran for 113 yards against New Orleans and 26 against Indianapolis. Minnesota won both games. If you’re backing the Vikings against Buffalo, that gap is a reminder to think about who gets the carries, even when you like Minnesota’s chances.
A Minnesota win gives us two places to look: Jones’s rushing yards in past Vikings wins and Josh Allen’s interceptions in past Bills losses. We’ll compare each with his record across all games for the same team and seasons.
Two Vikings parlay picks to compare
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones Over 31.5 rushing yards 2025 and 2026 regular seasons |
−112 | 83.3% 10 of 12 MIN wins |
68.4% 13 of 19 appearances |
| Josh Allen Over 0.5 interceptions 2025 and 2026 regular seasons |
−108 | 83.3% 5 of 6 BUF losses |
47.8% 11 of 23 appearances |
Aaron Jones: Over 31.5 rushing yards
Jones reached 32 yards in five of his six Minnesota wins this season. The 26-yard Indianapolis game was the exception. Against Detroit he got just five carries and finished with 22 yards. He shares the backfield with Jordan Mason, so the over depends on how much of the running work goes to Jones.
Josh Allen: Over 0.5 interceptions
The Bills lost to New England this season, and Allen threw a pick. He also threw one in a win over Baltimore, so you don’t need Buffalo to lose for this line to come through. Philadelphia was the only loss in the sample in which he didn’t throw one. With just one Bills loss in this year’s sample, most of the comparison still comes from last season.
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What to weigh with a Minnesota win
If you think Jones will get his share of the carries, his rushing line is the more direct way to play that view. If you’re more interested in a turnover from Buffalo, Allen’s line pays slightly more at these prices and has fewer losses to judge it by. Either can stand on its own. See the live Bills at Vikings matchup and our NFL coverage.
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