Nikita Kucherov turned a one-goal game into a rout Wednesday, scoring a natural hat trick in the third period of Tampa Bay’s 8-3 win at Buffalo. Columbus comes into this matchup with the opposite frustration: plenty of shots, barely any scoring. Can the Blue Jackets turn that volume into enough goals to keep up with the Lightning?
Tampa Bay’s scoring runs deeper than the hat trick
Kucherov delivered the finish, but he had plenty of help. Brandon Hagel scored twice, John Carlson collected a goal and four assists, and Jake Guentzel added four assists. That matters here because Columbus can’t build its entire defensive plan around stopping one shooter. Tampa Bay just showed how many players can contribute when its attack gets rolling.
The Lightning’s recent form gives that outburst some backing: they’ve scored at least three goals in each of their last 10 games this regular season and won four of their last five. Still, Buffalo exposed a weakness before Kucherov took over. The Sabres scored three straight to cut Tampa Bay’s lead to 4-3. The Lightning can overwhelm an opponent without necessarily shutting the door at the other end.
Now they have to do it on consecutive nights. Tampa Bay also lists Erik Cernak out with an undisclosed injury. That doesn’t tell us how the defensive minutes will shake out, but it makes clean exits and limiting extended Columbus possessions worth watching rather than assuming the offense will cover every mistake.
Columbus needs more than another busy shot counter
The Blue Jackets’ 4-1 loss to Florida included 37 saves by Jacob Markstrom and an Ivan Provorov goal. That’s 38 Columbus shots, so the offense wasn’t quiet in volume. The question is whether the Jackets can turn another night of pressure into more than a single finish.
That has been a recurring problem. Columbus has scored two goals or fewer in eight of its last 10 games, although its 7-2 win over Colorado in that stretch shows there’s a bigger offensive night available. Against Tampa Bay, the Jackets need sustained production rather than relying on one burst to carry them.
The middle period is another pressure point. Columbus has been outscored 23-8 in second periods through 16 games and is 0-9-0 when trailing after two. Staying close through 40 minutes would give the Jackets a chance to test Tampa Bay’s legs late. Another second-period slide could instead leave them chasing an offense that’s already comfortable trading goals.
The moneyline: offensive reliability versus a fresh challenge
The DraftKings moneyline has Tampa Bay at -115 and Columbus at -105. Tampa Bay’s case at that price starts with its more dependable recent scoring. The reason to hesitate is at the other end: this is the second night of a back-to-back, and Wednesday’s win still included a three-goal Buffalo rally.
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The goalie matchup could change that balance. If the listed Dennis Hildeby–Jet Greaves matchup holds, Hildeby brings an .880 save percentage across his four most recent appearances, while Greaves has an .885 mark across five. Neither recent sample supplies a strong reason to assume the opposing offense will be contained. A different starter would change an important part of the price assessment.
For Columbus to make its near-even quote appealing, the argument has to be more than home ice and extra rest. It needs to reproduce Tuesday’s shot volume, finish more of those opportunities and avoid spending the third period digging out of a deficit. For Tampa Bay, the price becomes harder to justify if the game turns into repeated defensive-zone shifts rather than the Lightning sustaining their own attack.
The total: does Columbus contribute enough?
The total is 6.5. Tampa Bay’s last 10 games have gone over their posted totals eight times; Columbus’s last 10 have gone under six times. Those histories point to the central tension here: the Lightning have kept scoring, while the Jackets have often struggled to contribute their share.
Our shot projections are nearly level at 28.7 for Tampa Bay and 28.4 for Columbus. We don’t see a large shot-volume advantage for either team. That puts more weight on finishing and goaltending, especially if Hildeby and Greaves get the starts. Their recent save percentages give the over case something tangible beyond Wednesday’s eight-goal headline.
But reaching seven goals still asks for a meaningful scoring contribution from Columbus—or another huge Tampa Bay night. The under case gets stronger if the Jackets’ finishing problems persist and they keep the Lightning from running away with the game. The over case gets stronger if Columbus turns its pressure into goals and forces Tampa Bay to keep attacking. Watch whether the Jackets’ early possessions end with shots and continued pressure, not just brief visits to the offensive zone.
Watch the second period—and the crease
The goalie decision and Columbus’s response in the middle frame are the two things I’d keep closest tabs on. If the Jackets stay level through two periods, Tampa Bay’s back-to-back becomes a much more interesting part of the finish. Visit the NHL betting board to compare the latest moneyline and total as the goalie picture takes shape.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
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