Ottawa found a way back. Pittsburgh nearly let one slip away. The Senators tied their last game late before winning in overtime, while the Penguins surrendered a two-goal third-period lead and needed a shootout. That makes the closing stretch worth watching here: can Pittsburgh protect its work against an Ottawa team that just turned a loose puck and an intercepted pass into a comeback?
Ottawa arrives with more than one way to score
Shane Pinto scored twice in Ottawa’s 4-3 overtime win over Colorado, finishing the winner after intercepting a pass in the Avalanche zone. Drake Batherson had forced overtime by collecting a loose puck in the crease with 3:56 left in regulation, and Tim Stutzle also scored. Those are two different problems for Pittsburgh: Ottawa punished a mistake with the puck and stayed around the net long enough to cash in on a scramble.
The Senators have won three of their last four games, allowing three, three, two and one goals in that stretch. They’ve needed both patience and finishing, with a 2-1 win at Buffalo alongside four-goal games against Utah and Colorado. Against Pittsburgh, the useful question is whether Ottawa can keep the game manageable while waiting for another opening, rather than needing to trade chances all night.
Pittsburgh has a win to build on—and a lead to learn from
Ben Kindel supplied a power-play goal and the only shootout conversion in Pittsburgh’s 3-2 win at San Jose. Samuel Girard opened the scoring with a slap shot, and Sergei Murashov made 34 saves through overtime. The Penguins also survived a San Jose power play over the final 43 seconds of overtime. They earned the result, but they needed several different escape routes.
The concern is what happened before that finish. Pittsburgh allowed goals with 8:28 and 4:11 remaining in regulation to erase its two-goal cushion. The Penguins are 4-6 over their last 10 games, with six of those games going over their stored totals. Ottawa’s latest comeback makes Pittsburgh’s late-game execution especially relevant: clearing the crease and getting the puck out cleanly matter more here than simply pointing to the previous win.
The goalie matchup could change the read
Samuel Ersson and Arturs Silovs are the listed possibilities, not confirmed starters. Across their five most recent appearances for their respective teams, Ersson stopped 111 of 120 shots for a .925 save percentage; Silovs stopped 113 of 132 for an .856 mark. Ersson’s sample includes a relief appearance, while Silovs started all five. If both get the call, that recent difference is meaningful—but neither was the goalie who delivered his team’s latest win.
We project 28.6 shots for Ottawa and 28.3 for Pittsburgh. That’s almost level on volume, so our read doesn’t depend on either team burying the other under shots. The saves each goalie makes, and whether defenders remove loose pucks before a second attempt, could separate otherwise similar shot counts.
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Moneyline: Ottawa’s case needs more than the better record
DraftKings lists Ottawa at -130 and Pittsburgh at +110, with a total of 6.5. Ottawa’s 12-6-2 record is stronger than Pittsburgh’s 7-10-2 mark, but the road price needs support from how this game is likely to unfold. The case for paying it strengthens if the Senators retain their recent defensive control and the listed goalie comparison holds. It weakens if Pittsburgh can establish a lead without handing Ottawa the extra possessions that fueled its comeback against Colorado.
Pittsburgh’s plus-money case starts with the offensive contributions it just received from Girard and Kindel, rather than requiring Sidney Crosby to solve everything. But the Penguins need a cleaner finish to make that price compelling. A starter change would also warrant another look: Murashov’s latest performance and Silovs’ recent sample describe very different goaltending outcomes.
Total: Can both teams contribute enough for seven?
The scoring threshold asks a different question from the moneyline. Ottawa has allowed no more than three goals in each of its last four games, and three of those four stayed under 6.5. Pittsburgh’s six overs in its last 10 point the other way, but its latest game featured only four goals before the shootout. An open game isn’t inevitable just because the Penguins have played several of them.
The over becomes more attractive if Pittsburgh’s recent difficulties getting saves continue and its attack makes Ottawa answer at the other end. The under case strengthens if Ottawa limits Pittsburgh’s contribution and both teams clear rebounds cleanly. With our shot-volume projections nearly even, we’d put more weight on the starting goalies and second-chance sequences than on expecting an unusually busy night. Ottawa scoring well doesn’t, by itself, make seven goals a comfortable assumption.
Watch the saves, then the exits
Start with who gets each crease, then watch whether Pittsburgh can finish defensive possessions without leaving a puck behind for Pinto, Batherson or Stutzle. That’s where the latest results meet this matchup. Visit the NHL betting board to compare this game’s prices with the rest of the slate as the goalie picture takes shape.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
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