Cooper Flagg put up 43 points against Indiana and still found teammates for six baskets. If you like Dallas against Cleveland, that’s a reminder that a big scoring night can leave plenty of room for his passing, too.
Flagg’s assists fit if you see Dallas getting good looks out of his drives. If your case for a Mavericks win starts on defense, Jarrett Allen’s combined under and Daniel Gafford’s blocks give you two ways to look at what happens near the rim.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg 6+ assists |
−175 | 100.0% 7 of 7 Dallas wins |
72.7% 8 of 11 Dallas games |
| Jarrett Allen Under 24.5 points + rebounds + assists |
−104 | 80.0% 20 of 25 Cleveland losses |
56.7% 38 of 67 Cleveland games |
| Daniel Gafford 2+ blocks |
+163 | 85.7% 6 of 7 Dallas wins |
83.3% 10 of 12 Dallas games |
Cooper Flagg to record six or more assists
One way Dallas can get there is to have Gafford screen for Flagg and roll hard to the rim. That worked against Brooklyn, when Flagg found him for two baskets and fouls early in the second quarter. Minnesota showed how much this depends on Dallas actually finishing possessions. The Mavericks shot 37.2% on Thursday and Flagg finished with three assists.
Three of Flagg’s seven qualifying Dallas wins landed on exactly six assists. DraftKings offered plus money for seven, but moving up one would have cut the record to four of seven. He reached six in eight of 22 Dallas wins last season, so the case rests on how much he’s creating for teammates in his current role.
Jarrett Allen under 24.5 points, rebounds and assists
Allen started and played nearly 32 minutes at Miami on Friday. He took four shots and finished with 18 combined, even with three offensive rebounds. That’s a path to the under if Dallas can keep him from getting repeated finishes at the rim. The glass is the risk. Allen pulled down 14 rebounds two nights earlier at New York and finished with 28 combined on only 11 points.
Allen stayed below 25 in all six losses he played this season. One of those appearances lasted only seven minutes, so Friday is a better example of the under holding up with his usual workload. Check Cleveland’s frontcourt before using it. Evan Mobley sat out Friday, and the Cavaliers’ Saturday injury report was still pending at the time of the morning check.
Daniel Gafford to block two or more shots
Gafford blocked three shots in 19 minutes against Brooklyn and two in 16 minutes against Minnesota. If Cleveland’s guards keep attacking the paint while he’s on the floor, he can get his chances in short stretches. He played just under 20 minutes against Indiana and finished without a block, though, and five of his six hits in Dallas wins landed on exactly two. The plus price comes with a narrow margin.
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Which prop fits a Dallas win?
I’d start with Flagg if you expect Dallas to get good shots out of his drives and pick-and-rolls. Allen’s under fits a view that the Mavericks can finish defensive possessions with a rebound. Gafford’s blocks are more about how often Cleveland tests him at the rim, which can happen in a Dallas loss too. Follow the live Mavericks–Cavaliers matchup or browse our latest NBA articles.
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