Cade Cunningham’s 52-point night in Washington came with a reminder for Miami. When defenses turn their attention to Cunningham, Ausar Thompson can keep Detroit’s offense moving by making the next pass.
If you like the Pistons to beat the Heat again, you can look at what helps Detroit score or what might keep Miami from answering. Thompson’s assists fit the first angle. Bam Adebayo’s points and assists under fits if you think Detroit can make it harder for him to work from the middle of the floor.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ausar Thompson 4+ assists |
−211 | 100.0% 7 of 7 Detroit wins |
70.0% 7 of 10 Detroit games |
| Bam Adebayo Under 20.5 points + assists |
−112 | 83.3% 5 of 6 Miami losses |
50.0% 6 of 12 Miami games |
Ausar Thompson to record four or more assists
Thompson finished with 11 assists in the double-overtime win at Washington, including a feed to Cunningham for a three to open the second overtime and another that set up a Duncan Robinson dunk. Detroit coach J.B. Bickerstaff said he wants Thompson attacking with the ball. Four is within reach in regular minutes, too. Thompson got exactly four against Washington on Monday and had five in 19 minutes in the first Miami meeting.
Five assists costs less, but it would have missed in two of the seven wins Thompson played this season. He reached four in only 19 of 53 Detroit wins last season, so the price makes more sense if you expect his current role to hold. If Cunningham does most of the creating and Thompson spends his time cutting and finishing, the assists can dry up.
Bam Adebayo under 20.5 points and assists
Adebayo had four points and three assists in the first Detroit meeting, but fouled out in 23 minutes. The Lakers game shows how the under can still hit when he plays his usual minutes. He scored 16 and added four assists in just under 31 minutes in that Miami loss.
Friday showed the risk. With Evan Mobley out, Miami repeatedly found a matchup it liked for Adebayo, and he scored 37 against Cleveland. Detroit is without Jalen Duren, so a repeat of October’s low scoring total is a tough assumption. The under hit in only half of Adebayo’s Miami losses last season. This season’s split is stronger, and I’d look for a specific way Detroit can limit him. The under fits if the Pistons can pressure the entry pass and contest Adebayo’s first shot without giving him an easy pass to a cutter.
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Which prop fits a Detroit win?
I’d start with Thompson if you expect Detroit to share the playmaking when Miami presses Cunningham. Adebayo’s under is the better fit if your read depends on Detroit taking away Miami’s catches in the middle of the floor.
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