New England has one game before its bye, and it’s against a Detroit team that has won four straight. The Patriots have won a close game against Buffalo and a low-scoring one against Miami this season. Those wins offer two different pictures of how they could get past the Lions in Munich.
If you see a Patriots win, think about whether Drake Maye gets New England ahead through the air or the defense puts Detroit in a position where it has to throw more. Maye’s touchdown passes, Jahmyr Gibbs’ rushing yards and Sam LaPorta’s catch count give you three ways to look at that outcome.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye Over 1.5 passing TDs |
−139 | 80.0% 4 of 5 NE wins |
66.7% 6 of 9 games |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Under 89.5 rushing yards |
−110 | 100.0% 10 of 10 DET losses |
60.0% 15 of 25 games |
| Sam LaPorta Over 4.5 receptions |
+131 | 100.0% 5 of 5 DET losses |
52.9% 9 of 17 games |
Drake Maye · Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Maye got to two touchdown passes on just 20 attempts and 199 yards in the win over Miami. Buffalo was a different test. He threw three touchdowns there, including the late go-ahead pass to Efton Chism III. If you think New England can finish drives through the air, either game shows how this line can get there.
Detroit enters the matchup last in passing touchdowns allowed. New England still has to protect Maye against Detroit’s front, and A.J. Brown is questionable. Maye also went without a touchdown pass in the 20–3 win over Pittsburgh. A Patriots win can look like that if the defense does most of the work.
Jahmyr Gibbs · Under 89.5 rushing yards
New England entered the week ninth in rushing yards allowed per game. If its front keeps Gibbs from breaking a long run and the Patriots make Detroit play from behind, this is the line that fits. Gibbs had 52 rushing yards at Buffalo and 46 at Carolina, Detroit’s two losses this season. He still had 61 receiving yards at Buffalo, so he can hurt New England through the air and stay under the rushing number.
Detroit has leaned on Gibbs more since making him its clear lead back this season. That puts some distance between last year’s games and this one. If the game stays close enough for Detroit to keep giving him carries, the under has to hold up against the same back who ran for 153 on Minnesota.
Sam LaPorta · Over 4.5 receptions
LaPorta’s two busiest games by catches this year came in Detroit’s two losses. He caught six passes at Buffalo and eight at Carolina, where he scored a late touchdown as Detroit tried to come back. If New England makes Goff keep throwing into the fourth quarter, LaPorta has a route to five without needing one long gain.
Five catches has been less common overall. LaPorta finished with four in Detroit’s win over Miami, when Goff threw only 25 passes. At plus money, the question is whether you expect the extra passing volume that helped him get there at Buffalo and Carolina. Check Amon-Ra St. Brown’s rib injury status before counting on the same distribution of Detroit targets.
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How do you see New England winning?
Maye’s touchdown line fits a Patriots offense that converts its chances to score. The Gibbs under is the more direct option if you expect New England’s front to limit the run. LaPorta’s over depends on Detroit throwing often enough for its tight end to catch five. Both get riskier if the Lions can stay comfortable on the ground.
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