The Jets went right back to Breece Hall last week after he missed five games. He had 87 yards from scrimmage even as Kansas City pulled away. If New York is going to beat a Buffalo team that has won four straight, Hall gives it a way to keep drives going on the ground and through short throws.
On the Bills’ side, James Cook III’s carry count and Josh Allen’s passing yards show what can change when Buffalo has to chase a game. The Jets can limit Cook’s workload and still give up yards to Allen, as New England did in Buffalo’s only loss this season.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall Over 75.5 rushing + receiving yards |
−115 | 100.0% 4 of 4 NYJ wins |
55.0% 11 of 20 games |
| James Cook III Under 18.5 rushing attempts |
−106 | 83.3% 5 of 6 BUF losses |
44.0% 11 of 25 games |
| Josh Allen Over 235.5 passing yards |
−112 | 83.3% 5 of 6 BUF losses |
54.2% 13 of 24 games |
Breece Hall · Over 75.5 rushing plus receiving yards
Hall put up 61 rushing yards and 26 receiving yards in his return against Kansas City. One early catch started six yards behind the line of scrimmage and still went for a first down. That receiving work gives him another way to get to 76 if Buffalo limits the ground gains.
Hall had 118 combined yards in the opening win at Tennessee, his only appearance in a Jets win this year. One of the four wins in the full sample landed on exactly 76, against Atlanta last season. Braelon Allen also has a role in this backfield, so Hall still needs enough touches to make both parts of the line count.
James Cook III · Under 18.5 rushing attempts
Cook had 75 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 carries when Buffalo lost to New England. The Bills trailed for much of that game, leaving him fewer chances even though his runs were productive. Last season’s loss to Houston shows the same distinction. He ran for 116 yards on 17 attempts.
Cook had 20 carries in a loss to Philadelphia last season and 31 in last week’s win over Minnesota. The Jets have allowed more than 140 rushing yards per game over their last four. If they let Buffalo stay ahead of the chains, Cook can get to 19 even in a close game.
Josh Allen · Over 235.5 passing yards
Allen threw for 253 yards on 33 attempts in the New England loss. He has cleared 235.5 in five of six Buffalo losses in the sample. If the Jets play from ahead, they can allow Allen to move the ball while still winning the game.
The miss was 180 yards at Atlanta last season. New York’s David Bailey had two sacks and forced two fumbles against Kansas City last week. If pressure keeps ending drives before Allen can hit a few longer throws, a pass-heavy game can still fall short on yards.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Bills vs. Jets picks.
See our model's picks for this game, plus the projections and trends behind them. Use PARLAY20 for 20% off Premium Monthly. New members who qualify get 3 days free.
How do you see the Jets winning?
Hall’s combined line fits a win built on feeding him in both phases. Cook’s under fits if New York makes Buffalo call fewer runs. Allen’s over adds the separate question of whether those passing downs turn into yards. If you expect the Jets’ pressure to shut drives down, Cook’s under is a more direct fit for that view.
Follow the live Bills–Jets matchup for updates, or see more NFL analysis.
More picks to build around
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.