Drew Lock has already found Jaxon Smith-Njigba for two touchdowns of 45 yards or more this season. With Lock set to start again, one deep completion is a way to think about a Seattle win in Las Vegas.
What the Raiders do if they fall behind gives you two other angles. Ashton Jeanty can see less work on the ground, while Tre Tucker can get to a modest receiving target on a handful of catches. New starter Fernando Mendoza makes that part of the matchup harder to read.
Player props for a Seahawks win
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 26.5 yards on longest reception |
−111 | 80.0% 4 of 5 SEA wins |
77.8% 7 of 9 games |
| Ashton Jeanty Under 33.5 rushing yards |
−109 | 80.0% 4 of 5 LV losses |
55.6% 5 of 9 games |
| Tre Tucker Over 28.5 receiving yards |
−109 | 100.0% 5 of 5 LV losses |
77.8% 7 of 9 games |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 26.5 yards on his longest catch
Lock’s 82-yard touchdown to Smith-Njigba in Arizona came on Seattle’s second play from scrimmage. He also found him for 45 in the opener. Seattle can get this one early, and a single catch can carry it even if the offense spends the second half running. Smith-Njigba has cleared almost as often overall as he has in wins. Last week, with Lock starting, he caught seven passes and his longest went for 18 yards. With starting left tackle Charles Cross out, time for the deep route is another question.
Ashton Jeanty under 33.5 rushing yards
Jeanty got six carries for 25 yards against San Francisco last week. He has also been sharing carries with Mike Washington Jr., and Seattle has allowed 3.4 yards a carry. The under fits if Seattle gets ahead and Las Vegas calls fewer runs. The Kansas City loss is a reminder of how quickly that can change. Jeanty got 15 carries and gained 58 yards that day. Seattle will also be without defensive tackle Leonard Williams.
Tre Tucker over 28.5 receiving yards
Tucker had four catches for 55 yards against San Francisco, with a long of 18. He’s had at least four catches in every Raiders loss this season, so repeated throws underneath can get him there without a deep shot. Seattle has allowed the fewest passing yards per game, and Mendoza has attempted only eight regular-season passes. If those short throws go mainly to the tight ends, Tucker may have fewer chances than he’s had in those other losses.
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Where do you see Seattle getting ahead?
Smith-Njigba’s line fits if you see Seattle landing a big pass early. Jeanty’s under fits if you expect the defense to squeeze the run and force Las Vegas to throw. Tucker’s line is a more specific read on who gets those throws with a new quarterback.
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