Florida opened the scoring on the power play in St. Louis and came away with a third straight win. Dallas shut out Buffalo that same night, so Florida gets a chance to put its power play up against a penalty kill that just had a clean night.
If you see the Panthers winning in Dallas, watch what Seth Jones can create from the blue line and how often Carter Verhaeghe gets a shot through. Jason Robertson’s shot total gives you a way to consider how much room Florida leaves Dallas’s top shooters.
Player props for a Panthers win
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Jones Over 0.5 points |
−120 | 83.3% 10 of 12 FLA wins |
61.9% 13 of 21 games |
| Carter Verhaeghe 2+ shots on goal |
−215 | 83.3% 10 of 12 FLA wins |
66.7% 14 of 21 games |
| Jason Robertson Under 3.5 shots on goal |
−160 | 87.5% 7 of 8 DAL losses |
63.2% 12 of 19 games |
Seth Jones over 0.5 points
Jones drew a penalty in Columbus and picked up an assist on Sam Bennett’s power-play goal at the end of the power play. If Florida can move the puck from the blue line to the slot before Dallas closes the lane, Jones has a chance to get on the scoresheet as a passer. He can finish a play himself, too. He scored from the right circle against Chicago, one of two Florida wins in which he scored without an assist.
Jones has a point in 10 of 12 Florida wins. He was held off the scoresheet despite putting four shots on net in St. Louis. Dallas went 5-for-5 on the penalty kill against Buffalo. Watch how often Florida gets the extra skater and whether Jones can get the puck through the first layer of pressure.
Carter Verhaeghe 2+ shots on goal
Verhaeghe put two shots on goal in St. Louis even though he had no point. When Florida can keep a shift going in the offensive zone, he can find a second look by moving away from the puck and arriving on the far side. He scored from the back post against Chicago after Brady Tkachuk found him from down low.
Saturday was the only Florida win in which he finished with exactly two. The 3+ alternate was +130 in the same DraftKings snapshot and cleared in nine of Florida’s 12 wins. At −215, the two-shot line costs more and would have covered one additional Florida win.
Jason Robertson under 3.5 shots on goal
Robertson had two shots and still set up a goal in Dallas’s loss to Winnipeg. If Florida closes on him quickly in the circle, Robertson may have to send the puck back outside instead of shooting. He’s stayed below four shots in seven of eight Dallas losses, with three of those seven finishing right on three.
His five shots against Buffalo show how quickly the under can get away, even in a game with just two goals. A few extra Dallas power plays could give him the space to get to four on his own.
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Watch where Florida creates space
Jones’s point fits a game where Florida gets the puck through Dallas’s penalty kill. Verhaeghe needs two shots to get through, even if the Stars’ goalie turns them both aside. If your read is that the Panthers win by taking time away from Dallas’s shooters, Robertson’s under gives you the clearest test of that.
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