Cleveland ran for 183 yards in its last win, at Tennessee. Quinshon Judkins led the way, and Deshaun Watson put the Browns ahead with a fourth-quarter touchdown run. With Watson back against Houston, there are two different ways to look at Cleveland’s ground game.
If you see the Browns winning, Judkins’ rushing yards fit a game where he can keep taking handoffs. Watson’s attempts fit a game where he has to create with his legs. Cleveland can also win without picking off C.J. Stroud. Houston has lost five times this season without him throwing an interception.
Player props for a Browns win
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins Over 43.5 rushing yards |
−109 | 85.7% 6 of 7 CLE wins |
59.1% 13 of 22 games |
| Deshaun Watson Over 6.5 rushing attempts |
−110 | 80.0% 4 of 5 CLE wins |
50.0% 4 of 8 games |
| C.J. Stroud Under 0.5 interceptions thrown |
−107 | 100.0% 5 of 5 HOU losses |
75.0% 6 of 8 games |
Quinshon Judkins over 43.5 rushing yards
Judkins ran for 96 yards and two touchdowns at Tennessee, his third time clearing this line in four Cleveland wins he played in this season. He needed 17 carries for 53 against Pittsburgh, so steady work can get him there even without a long run. Tampa Bay held him to 21 in a Cleveland win, and he finished one yard short of the 44 he needs against New Orleans last week. Houston will be without linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, but Cleveland still needs to open enough lanes for Judkins.
Deshaun Watson over 6.5 rushing attempts
Watson’s third-and-3 scramble for 21 yards against Carolina helped keep the winning drive alive. He had 11 carries that day and landed on exactly seven in two other wins. He ran just three times in each of his last two starts and is returning after clearing concussion protocol. Houston’s pressure can force him to move, but sacks won’t count toward the seven carries he needs.
C.J. Stroud under 0.5 interceptions thrown
Stroud threw 55 passes without an interception against Cincinnati, and Houston still scored only six points. Cleveland can win this matchup if it ends drives with pressure or stops on third down. It does have a chance to take the ball away, though. Denzel Ward has three interceptions, and Stroud threw one in last week’s win over the Chargers.
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What does Cleveland need to win?
Judkins’ yards are the more direct fit if you expect Cleveland’s line to make room on early downs. Watson’s attempts fit better if you expect him to rescue plays himself. Stroud’s under fits if you see the Browns getting stops without needing a turnover through the air.
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