Atlanta lost in overtime at Chicago on Friday even as Jalen Johnson put up a triple-double. The Hawks now visit a Milwaukee team that has one win this season.
If you see the Bucks getting their second, look at two things Atlanta’s losses can tell you. Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s combined line depends heavily on what he gets from the perimeter. Johnson’s rebound line comes down to who controls the glass.
Player props for a Bucks win
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker Under 28.5 points + rebounds + assists |
−115 | 100.0% 6 of 6 ATL losses |
61.5% 8 of 13 games |
| Jalen Johnson Under 9.5 rebounds |
−117 | 83.3% 5 of 6 ATL losses |
80.0% 8 of 10 games |
Nickeil Alexander-Walker under 28.5 points, rebounds and assists
Alexander-Walker got 19 shots in each of Atlanta’s last two losses. He finished at 28 combined against the Lakers and 25 against Chicago. He played 41 minutes in the Bulls game and went 1-for-11 from deep. Milwaukee can give this under room by getting out to him at the arc and recovering to the next shooter when he passes.
Three of the six loss totals were 27 or 28. A single extra basket could have put any of those over. If he starts getting clean looks early, remember he made nine threes against Indiana and cleared this line on points alone.
Jalen Johnson under 9.5 rebounds
Johnson played 38 minutes in the Lakers loss and grabbed seven rebounds, while Onyeka Okongwu took nine. If Myles Turner and the Bucks keep Atlanta’s forwards off the offensive glass, Johnson has to get more of his boards at the other end.
Three of Johnson’s five unders in losses ended at nine. The one miss came Friday, when he collected four offensive rebounds on his way to 11 in the overtime loss. The loss rate is close to his all-game rate, so watch how often he gets inside position on Atlanta misses. That matters more for this line than the final score alone.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Hawks vs. Bucks picks.
See our model's picks for this game, plus the projections and trends behind them. Use PARLAY20 for 20% off Premium Monthly. New members who qualify get 3 days free.
What to watch early in Milwaukee
If Milwaukee is closing out well, Alexander-Walker’s combined under fits that version of the game. If Atlanta’s shots are getting contested but Johnson is collecting the misses, the two props can head in different directions.
Follow the live Hawks–Bucks matchup or browse more NBA analysis.
More picks to build around
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.