Cardae Mack gave Arizona State a way to win when its offense needed one, rushing for four touchdowns against Kansas State. Now the Sun Devils take that ground-game success to BYU, where the Cougars are 16.5-point favorites at DraftKings despite suffering their first loss last weekend. The matchup turns on whether Arizona State can keep producing useful drives against a defense that our analysis rates highly, rather than letting BYU dictate the game.
Mack gives Arizona State something to build on
Mack carried 26 times for 159 yards in Saturday’s 28-17 win, scoring twice in the fourth quarter. Reed Harris added six catches for 147 yards, while Arizona State held Kansas State to four third-down conversions in 14 attempts. Those are concrete strengths to bring into Provo.
The defensive performance also needs context. In their previous two Big 12 games, the Sun Devils allowed 55 points to Baylor and 53 to Texas Tech. Keeping Kansas State to 17 was an important response, but repeating it against BYU would do much more to establish that the defense has steadied.
Our projections leave Arizona State with a challenge sustaining that offense: about 315 total yards and 16 first downs, compared with roughly 374 yards and 20 first downs for BYU. The rushing outlook is about 127 yards for the Sun Devils and 155 for the Cougars. Mack’s latest performance is a reason to take Arizona State’s ground game seriously; the broader team outlook makes consistent production the test.
BYU’s six covers meet a different assignment
BYU covered its first six games this season before losing 39-31 in double overtime at UCF on Saturday. The Cougars reached the UCF 4-yard line in the second overtime but couldn’t complete a fourth-down pass to extend the game. It was their first outright defeat and first failure to cover this season.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Arizona State vs. BYU picks.
Unlock our model's best bets for this matchup, plus projections, trends, and matchup analysis. Start with a free 7-day trial, then save 20% every month with code PREVIEW20.
That 6-1 record against the spread is useful context for a large favorite, though the individual assignments have varied. BYU beat Notre Dame 28-24 as an underdog the week before UCF. This week asks the Cougars to create separation, rather than simply find a way to win a close game.
We give both defenses an A- grade, while BYU’s offense grades B+ against Arizona State’s B. That supports taking the Cougars’ offense seriously without treating the visiting defense as an automatic mismatch. Arizona State’s best counterargument is the combination it showed against Kansas State: productive rushing and enough third-down stops to keep the game within reach.
A 48.5 total meets an uneven scoring history
Four of seven games for each team have gone Over this season, but the recent scores come with very different explanations. BYU’s latest game needed two overtimes, while Arizona State’s last win leaned on Mack and a much better defensive showing. The Sun Devils’ earlier heavy concessions offer a clear route to more scoring if those problems return.
For this total, the meaningful question is whether Arizona State can pair its rushing success with another round of defensive stops. BYU’s projected edge in yardage and first downs gives it a plausible way to maintain pressure over several possessions. Mack gives the visitors a credible response, but Arizona State needs its Kansas State performance to become repeatable on both sides of the ball to make the favorite’s job uncomfortable.
We break down every matchup
Explore the college football betting board for current odds, our projections and sharp picks for Saturday’s games.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
More matchups to explore
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.