Nathan MacKinnon and Martin Nečas collected their points through assists in Colorado’s latest game, a 6–2 loss at Nashville. Their one-point markets leave that playmaking route open as well as a goal. The choice between them is a useful starting point for Avalanche backers: MacKinnon brings the stronger win record, while Nečas offers a longer individual return.
For Wednesday’s home matchup with New Jersey, these Avalanche parlay picks begin with a hypothetical Colorado win, then compare those two scoring options with Dougie Hamilton’s shots and Timo Meier’s assists. Colorado was −148 on the moneyline in the DraftKings reference snapshot. Treat the four markets as a menu, with the related Colorado scorers especially worth comparing rather than automatically combining.
Four player options around an Avalanche win
The table uses each player’s actual appearances for his current club from the previous season through this season’s completed games, including postseason appearances where available. Each overall record matches the dates, team and participation of its conditional comparison. For the Colorado players, the condition is an Avalanche win; for the New Jersey players, it is a Devils loss.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All appearances |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon 1+ point |
−340 | 86.6% 58 of 67 COL wins |
74.3% 78 of 105 appearances |
| Martin Nečas 1+ point |
−230 | 80.3% 53 of 66 COL wins |
69.9% 72 of 103 appearances |
| Dougie Hamilton 2+ shots on goal |
−200 | 83.3% 35 of 42 NJ losses |
74.2% 66 of 89 appearances |
| Timo Meier Under 0.5 assists |
−300 | 88.1% 37 of 42 NJ losses |
74.2% 66 of 89 appearances |
These are individual DraftKings odds. The 1+ point and 2+ shot markets are actual inclusive milestone offers: exactly one point or two shots succeeds. Prices can change. The recorded frequencies describe past appearances, not the probability or price of a combined parlay.
Nathan MacKinnon: 1+ point at −340
MacKinnon recorded a goal or an assist in 58 of 67 Colorado wins (86.6%), compared with 78 of 105 Colorado appearances overall (74.3%) in the matched sample. A single assist is sufficient. This is the offered 1+ points milestone, which has a lower requirement than his main over 1.5 points market.
He has a point in all six Colorado wins this season and eight of twelve appearances overall. In the most recent win, 6–3 against Tampa Bay, he produced a goal and three assists. He followed that with one assist at Nashville. The Nashville result is a reminder that this prop can succeed while the team loses; the conditional record does not make the two outcomes equivalent.
The earlier meeting with New Jersey is the most relevant recent counterexample. Colorado lost 4–3 on October 20, and MacKinnon went without a point despite five shots and 21:19 of ice time. He also went pointless in the preceding game at Philadelphia. Plenty of involvement can still leave the scoring column empty.
He is listed as the expected first-line center, with no current injury flag in the matchup context. At −340, the one-point requirement gives a short individual return. Its attraction here is the longer 67-win history and six-of-six current win record, while Nečas provides a less expensive way to pursue a point from the same expected line.
Martin Nečas: 1+ point at −230
Nečas recorded a point in 53 of 66 Colorado wins (80.3%) and 72 of 103 Colorado appearances overall (69.9%). His 13 misses in those wins are a reason to weigh the lower price against MacKinnon’s more consistent record. The 66-win sample and current first-line role give that comparison more substance than a short recent streak alone.
His current record is five of six Colorado wins and eight of twelve appearances. A goal and two assists accompanied the Tampa Bay win; two assists accounted for his points at Nashville. He also scored in the loss at Philadelphia. Those recent games show both routes to the one-point requirement, without having to predict whether he will finish a chance or set one up.
He went pointless in the earlier Devils meeting, however, despite three shots in 19:05. His current win miss came in Colorado’s 7–3 victory at Calgary on October 8 Eastern: the team scored freely, but Nečas had no goal or assist. That is a particularly useful warning against assuming the whole top line will share in a strong team attack.
The expected first-line right wing has no current injury flag. The −230 price gives a longer individual return than MacKinnon’s −340, in exchange for the weaker conditional record. Their samples overlap heavily and they are expected linemates. These are related ways to choose a Colorado scorer, not independent evidence for stacking both into a ticket.
Dougie Hamilton: 2+ shots on goal at −200
Hamilton reached two shots on goal in 35 of 42 New Jersey losses (83.3%), against 66 of 89 New Jersey appearances overall (74.2%). This is the actual 2+ milestone, which succeeds at exactly two. It is a lower requirement than his main over 2.5 shots market, where three are needed.
His current record is three of four Devils losses and nine of twelve appearances overall. He took three shots in the loss at Washington; his one current loss miss was a single shot against Utah on October 6. He missed seven times in the longer 42-loss sample, and the four-loss current sample offers only a limited check on that history.
Hamilton’s latest three shot totals were zero, two and three. He also took two shots and added an assist in New Jersey’s earlier 4–3 win over Colorado. Those two-shot games illustrate the practical difference between the milestone and the main line. The zero against Anaheim is equally important: normal participation does not guarantee two shots.
He is listed on the expected second defensive pair, with no current injury flag. His latest appearances included 21:09, 18:59 and 19:47 of ice time. At −200, this choice asks for shooting activity even in a Devils defeat, without requiring a goal or a point. It gives readers a different statistic to consider from the two Colorado scoring options.
Timo Meier: under 0.5 assists at −300
Meier finished without an assist in 37 of 42 Devils losses (88.1%), compared with 66 of 89 New Jersey appearances overall (74.2%). The market permits him to score a goal; it only requires that he not record an assist. That distinction separates it from his under 0.5 points offer at −155, where either kind of scoring contribution would defeat the under.
This season, he has no assist in three of four losses and nine of twelve appearances. In the 4–2 loss at Washington, he scored a goal without an assist, an example of why the narrower requirement matters. His loss miss was an assist against Utah on October 6. Even a Devils defeat can leave him with a successful pass that defeats this under.
His latest game supplies fresh counterevidence: Meier had an assist in Tuesday’s 5–1 win at Dallas. Before that, he went three consecutive games without one, including the first Colorado meeting, when he took eight shots but had no point. Shooting volume and a first-line role leave him involved in the attack even when this particular under succeeds.
He is the expected first-line left wing and has no current injury flag. The −300 price offers a shorter individual return than the no-point market, in exchange for allowing a goal. If your Colorado-win view still leaves room for Meier to score, that is the specific trade to consider. His record and Hamilton’s shots record do not tell us how often both props succeed together.
Comparing the four routes
MacKinnon offers the stronger point record in Colorado wins at the shorter price; Nečas offers a longer return with more misses, including a high-scoring Colorado win this month. Hamilton’s two-shot milestone allows New Jersey to keep generating attempts without needing to score. Meier’s assist under permits a goal while isolating his playmaking, with his latest assist a reason to avoid treating it as automatic.
The two Colorado point markets are closely related, and the two New Jersey markets draw on the same loss history. Separate records establish neither independence nor a combined success rate. Check the exact current prices and personnel before choosing the route that fits your view. The expected skater lines remain unconfirmed; Jake Allen is listed as confirmed for New Jersey, while Colorado’s Mackenzie Blackwood listing is unconfirmed.
Follow the live Devils–Avalanche matchup, and explore more games in our NHL analysis.
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