Colorado has scored eight, six and seven goals in its three wins this season. Dallas has played five games without a single one going over its sportsbook total. That clash makes Tuesday’s matchup especially interesting: can the Avalanche carry their scoring surge into a game against a Stars team whose goaltending has been its strongest early counterweight?
Colorado has the firepower, but Dallas has an answer
The latest DraftKings moneyline barely separates the teams, with Colorado at -115 and Dallas at -105. Our analysis sees a clearer difference in their attacks: we give the Avalanche an A+ offensive grade and the Stars a B. Our shooting projections also favor Colorado, at about 33 shots to Dallas’ 25. That’s a meaningful volume advantage, though the quality of those attempts still matters.
Nathan MacKinnon gives that advantage a familiar face. He scored twice in Colorado’s 6-3 loss to Toronto on Saturday, and the Stars’ game-day guide notes that he has a 10-game point streak against Dallas. With Artturi Lehkonen and Martin Necas alongside him on the top forward line, Colorado has a clear focal point for its attack.
Dallas’ strongest response is Jake Oettinger, who’s expected in net. He has allowed just three goals across four appearances this season, including back-to-back shutouts against San Jose and Buffalo. The Stars still lost 2-1 in a shootout to Pittsburgh on Saturday, a useful reminder that excellent goaltending hasn’t always been enough: Dallas has scored one goal or fewer in each of its three losses. Its wins tell a different story, though—the Stars beat San Jose 5-0 and Buffalo 4-0, so their low-scoring games haven’t all come from a quiet attack.
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Why the 5.5-goal total needs a closer look
The early betting results pull in opposite directions. All five Dallas games this season have gone under, while four of Colorado’s five have gone over. But the thresholds matter: four of those Dallas games had totals of 6.5, as did all five Colorado games. This matchup’s 5.5 asks a different scoring question, so simply carrying either team’s streak forward misses an important part of the matchup.
Oettinger’s early performance is the strongest case for Dallas keeping the scoring contained. Colorado supplies the counterweight—not just through its attack, but through its recent results at the other end. Mackenzie Blackwood has allowed 13 goals across four appearances this season. Dallas doesn’t need to match Colorado’s shooting volume to contribute meaningfully to the total if that stretch continues. Its four- and five-goal wins also show why an under streak alone shouldn’t be read as evidence that the Stars can’t score.
Special teams offer another point to watch. Our projections call for roughly three power-play opportunities apiece, rather than a large advantage in chances for either team. Colorado went 0-for-5 on the power play against Toronto despite MacKinnon’s two goals. Getting more out of those opportunities would make its scoring pressure harder for Dallas to absorb at a 5.5 total.
The matchup comes down to more than shot totals
Colorado brings the stronger attack grade, the higher shooting projection and three emphatic scoring performances in its wins. Oettinger’s early results are the clearest counterweight, but Dallas also needs its scoring support to look more like its wins than its losses. With the moneyline nearly even, that balance matters more than the shot gap alone. At 5.5, Dallas’ contribution is especially important: its under streak came mostly against higher totals, and Blackwood’s recent goals allowed give the Stars another route to influencing the scoring outlook.
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