Caleb Williams’ expected return gives Chicago a chance to turn the page on a rough afternoon in Green Bay, but Atlanta brings a more complicated test than its 2-3 record suggests. The Bears are 1.5-point favorites at DraftKings, while our analysis rates the Falcons’ offense slightly higher. Chicago has the stronger yardage outlook; the question is whether that production can become a cleaner, more productive game with Williams back.
A different starting point for Chicago
Chicago lost 31-7 to Green Bay on Sunday, committing five turnovers with Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum handling the quarterback duties. Williams didn’t play in that game. Yahoo Sports’ matchup preview reports that he’s expected back against Atlanta, so last week’s offensive collapse isn’t a straightforward guide to this matchup.
Our yardage projections give Chicago about 375 total yards, including roughly 225 passing and 150 rushing. Atlanta comes in around 340 total yards. That gives the Bears a plausible path built on production through both the air and the ground, rather than needing Williams to carry everything himself. We also project about 22 first downs for Chicago against 20 for Atlanta—an advantage, though hardly an overwhelming one.
Chicago’s backfield is also worth watching. Kyle Monangai, behind D’Andre Swift on the depth chart, was estimated as a non-participant Wednesday with thumb and toe issues. His practice participation leaves a question about the backfield rotation, but it doesn’t establish his availability for Sunday.
Atlanta’s offense is the counterweight
Our grades put Atlanta’s offense at B+ with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, compared with a B for Chicago’s offense with Williams. Both defenses receive a C, and both teams have a B- overall grade. Those evaluations point to a competitive matchup rather than a comfortable advantage for Chicago, even with the Bears ahead in our yardage projections.
The Falcons have shown a higher-scoring side lately, putting up 35 points against Green Bay and 45 against New Orleans before losing 30-23 in overtime to Baltimore on Sunday night. But that latest score needs some context: Atlanta scored only one offensive touchdown, with Jessie Bates III adding a fumble-return touchdown. Bijan Robinson ran for 86 yards and Penix threw for 240, so there was production without a steady stream of offensive touchdowns.
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What matters at a total of 51.5
The 51.5-point total is higher than the posted total in either team’s past five games this season. Chicago’s past five games produced four Unders, while Atlanta’s last three have all gone Over. Those contrasting results make a simple trend-based read less useful here.
There’s a credible scoring case in the stronger offensive grades against two C-rated defenses, along with Williams’ expected return. The counterweight is how that production becomes points: Atlanta’s latest result included a defensive touchdown and overtime, while Chicago’s recent results came with a different quarterback picture. At 51.5, the ability to sustain offensive scoring deserves more weight than those recent final scores alone.
The takeaway
Chicago’s strongest case is its projected advantage in yardage and first downs, now with Williams expected to lead the offense. Atlanta’s answer is an attack we rate slightly better, which makes the Bears’ small-favorite position look competitive rather than comfortable. The key is whether Chicago can pair its stronger volume outlook with fewer empty possessions after last week’s five turnovers. For the total, Atlanta’s one-touchdown offensive performance against Baltimore is a useful reminder that moving the ball and consistently finishing drives aren’t the same thing.
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