Two catches were enough for Aaron Jones against Detroit, even as Minnesota lost. That same number was enough to beat Dawson Knox’s under in Buffalo’s win over the Lions. If you’re backing the Bills against the Vikings, those are two different ways to think about the 1.5-catch line.
Start with a Buffalo win: look at what Jones caught in past Vikings losses and what Knox caught in past Bills wins. Then compare each with his own record across all games in the same stretch.
Two Bills parlay picks to compare
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones Over 1.5 receptions Minnesota · 2025 and 2026 regular seasons |
−178 | 85.7% 6 of 7 MIN losses |
73.7% 14 of 19 appearances |
| Dawson Knox Under 1.5 receptions Buffalo · 2026 regular season |
−207 | 83.3% 5 of 6 BUF wins |
71.4% 5 of 7 appearances |
Aaron Jones: Over 1.5 receptions
Jones shared the backfield with Jordan Mason against Detroit and got just two targets. He caught both, which was all the over needed. The Atlanta loss last season shows how quickly that can go the other way: Jones finished without a catch. Detroit was his only appearance in a Vikings loss this season, and he got to two catches in four of seven games overall this year. You’re counting on a couple of chances in the passing game even if Minnesota’s offense has a rough night.
Dawson Knox: Under 1.5 receptions
Knox caught one of two targets in Buffalo’s latest win over Baltimore. That one-catch game fits his usual spot behind Dalton Kincaid, who practiced in full Friday. But one extra completion changes the bet, as Detroit showed. Go back through last season and the under hit in only 10 of 17 Buffalo wins across the two years, so the case rests more on Knox’s role this season than on Buffalo winning by itself.
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What to weigh with a Buffalo win
Jones’s over pays more at the listed prices, and it fits if you see Minnesota finding a couple of throws for him out of the backfield. Knox’s under asks you to pay more for a line that depends on his targets staying limited. Either can stand on its own alongside your view of the game. See the live Bills at Vikings matchup and more of our NFL coverage.
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