Buffalo is priced as the clear favorite against Columbus, yet the teams’ recent records and our grades offer little separation. Both have won five of their last 10 games, with matching offensive and defensive grades. The more interesting difference is in goal: Cam Talbot has been stopping shots at a much better rate than Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in their latest five appearances. With neither confirmed for Friday and Columbus coming off a shootout Thursday, the goalie decisions could change how much weight that contrast deserves.
Columbus found a way through a tight game
According to AP’s report on ESPN, the Blue Jackets beat Dallas 2–1 in a shootout Thursday after Zach Werenski tied the game with 3:14 left in regulation. Kent Johnson assisted on that goal to extend his point streak to six games, then scored in the shootout along with Valeri Nichushkin. Talbot made 27 saves.
That win followed a very different result, a 7–2 victory over Colorado. Columbus has shown it can win through a scoring burst or survive a game with very little scoring, but the Dallas result needed a late equalizer and the shootout. The two wins don’t describe a single, settled pattern of offensive control.
Buffalo’s latest close game went the other way. Peyton Krebs scored first, with assists from Tage Thompson and Zach Benson, but Ottawa came back to win 2–1 on Michael Amadio’s goal with 3:09 remaining, as AP reported via ESPN. Colten Ellis made 28 saves in the defeat, which ended Buffalo’s three-game winning streak.
The goalie comparison needs its context
Talbot's latest five completed appearances carry a .933 save percentage. Four were starts and one was a relief appearance. He allowed one goal against Dallas and two against Colorado in his latest two starts, giving Columbus strong support across those very different wins.
Luukkonen’s latest five appearances were all starts and produced a .890 save percentage. The most recent was October 31, when he stopped 27 of 29 shots in a win over Los Angeles. That sample therefore doesn’t include Buffalo’s latest game against Ottawa, which Ellis played.
The back-to-back makes Columbus’ choice especially relevant: Talbot played all 65 minutes before Thursday’s shootout. His recent work strengthens the Columbus case if he starts again, but it doesn’t tell us what to expect from a different goalie. These five-appearance samples also leave plenty of room for the longer-term picture to differ.
DraftKings lists Buffalo at -170 on the moneyline and Columbus at +142. Our team grades are identical: B on offense, C+ on defense and B- overall. Those grades and the last-10 results don’t show a clear team-quality gap to explain the price. Buffalo’s home ice and Columbus’ schedule are part of tonight’s setting, while the goalie choice remains an important unresolved detail. Columbus’ better recent save percentage is worth weighing, but it doesn’t settle the moneyline decision by itself.
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What could move the scoring past 6.5?
The total is 6.5 goals. Six of Columbus' last 10 games stayed under their respective totals, while six of Buffalo’s last 10 went over. Both teams’ latest games ended with three combined goals, but Columbus’ previous game had nine and Buffalo’s win at Anaheim three games ago had 13. Recent results leave room for very different scoring environments.
Our projections put each team around 28 shots. That offers little reason to expect a large shot-volume advantage, and it doesn’t tell us which team will create better chances. Buffalo is projected for about three power-play opportunities, compared with 2.5 for Columbus. Extra-man chances could matter in an otherwise balanced volume matchup, but opportunities still have to become dangerous shots and goals.
A similar shot count leaves the finishing and goaltending questions open. If Talbot starts again, Buffalo would be facing a goalie whose recent work has helped Columbus win in both high- and low-scoring games. If he sits, that part of the comparison changes. Either way, the offenses need more than volume alone to turn this into a game that clears 6.5.
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