Ottawa’s 5-1-0 start looks much stronger than St. Louis’ 2-2-1 record, yet the betting market barely separates them. The Senators are coming off a win in New Jersey the night before and dealing with blue-line injuries. The interesting question is how much of Ottawa’s early advantage carries into this matchup—and whether the Blues’ scoring breakthrough on Saturday gives them a way to challenge it.
Ottawa has momentum, but this is a different assignment
Tim Stützle had a goal and an assist as Ottawa beat New Jersey 4-1 on Monday. Linus Ullmark stopped 29 of 30 shots. That’s a strong result, but Ottawa now returns home for the second half of a back-to-back, while St. Louis hasn’t played since Saturday. The Blues’ official preview also highlights that scheduling contrast.
Ottawa’s blue-line injuries matter, too. Jake Sanderson is not expected to play against St. Louis because of a lower-body injury, and Artem Zub will remain sidelined with a knee injury, per NHL.com’s Mike Morreale. Nikolas Matinpalo also left Monday’s game with an upper-body injury and did not return. Ottawa has kept winning despite those personnel challenges.
Our grades still favor Ottawa’s attack: a B compared with St. Louis’ D+, while both teams receive a B- defensive grade. Our shooting projections give the Senators a modest volume advantage, at about 29 shots to the Blues’ 25. Together, those assessments support Ottawa having the stronger attacking outlook, without making this look like a one-sided matchup.
The Blues have a fresh scoring example—and a goalie counterweight
St. Louis ended a three-game losing streak by beating Columbus 5-3 on Saturday. Jimmy Snuggerud scored twice and Dylan Holloway supplied three assists. Both are alongside Robert Thomas on the Blues’ first line, giving St. Louis a relevant source of recent production to bring into Ottawa.
The expected goalie matchup adds another wrinkle. Joel Hofer has stopped 66 of 71 shots across three recent appearances this season, a .930 save percentage. Samuel Ersson has stopped 39 of 44 across two recent appearances for Ottawa, a .886 mark; one of those was a relief outing. These are small samples, but Hofer’s early work is a meaningful counterweight to Ottawa’s stronger attack. With Ersson expected in net, bettors also have reason not to simply carry Ullmark’s excellent Monday performance into Tuesday’s outlook.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Blues vs. Senators picks.
Unlock our model's best bets for this matchup, plus projections, trends, and matchup analysis. Start with a free 7-day trial, then save 20% every month with code PREVIEW20.
A close moneyline and a complicated 5.5 total
DraftKings’ current moneyline has Ottawa at -115 and St. Louis at -105, putting the Senators only narrowly ahead. Ottawa’s stronger start and attacking grades line up with that slight favorite status. But the back-to-back, blue-line injuries and Hofer’s early results give bettors reasons to look beyond the records.
The 5.5-goal total presents a different tension. Five of Ottawa’s six games this season have gone Under their posted totals, producing a historical profit of 3.92 units from flat one-unit Under bets. That run gives useful context, but St. Louis has gone Over in three of its five games this season and just scored five against Columbus. At 5.5, Hofer’s recent saves support a more restrained scoring outlook, while Ersson’s uneven early results and Ottawa’s blue-line injuries make the Senators’ low-scoring pattern harder to carry forward confidently.
Ottawa has the stronger attacking case in our assessment, but its record makes this assignment look simpler than it is. St. Louis brings more rest, Hofer’s encouraging early play and a first line that just delivered a productive night. The key is whether Ottawa’s modest shooting advantage can outweigh those counterweights with a different expected goalie behind it. That goalie contrast also makes the 5.5 total more complicated than Ottawa’s Under streak alone suggests.
We break down every matchup
Explore the NHL betting board for sharp picks, current odds and our matchup ratings across the league’s games.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
More matchups to explore
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.