Boston College just ran for 399 yards, while Duke needed a running back to throw the winning touchdown. Both teams found a way to win last week, but neither result should become a simple template for Saturday. The Eagles’ ground game gives them a compelling starting point; our projections suggest Duke may have the rushing advantage this time.
Boston College’s big day came with more than rushing yards
The Eagles beat Georgia Tech 49-27 after falling behind 10-0. Mason McKenzie ran for 170 yards and two touchdowns, and Bo MacCormack III added 155 yards and three rushing scores. Boston College finished with 500 total yards.
The defense helped change the game too. Charlie Comella intercepted two second-half passes, returning one 55 yards for a touchdown. The first interception set up a McKenzie touchdown run. Boston College’s ground production was substantial, but the turnovers and defensive score were important parts of the final margin.
That win followed a 27-21 victory over Pittsburgh and extended the Eagles’ run to four consecutive covers. They are 4-3 overall, with five covers in seven games this season. The recent results make them a more interesting underdog than a glance at the standings alone would suggest.
Duke has to turn a narrow escape into steadier offense
Duke beat Virginia 19-16 on Friday when Nate Sheppard threw a 28-yard touchdown pass to Brody Keefe with 1:14 left. Sheppard had been held to 55 rushing yards, and Duke’s final four first-half possessions all ended in punts. The trick play delivered the win, but it came after long stretches in which the Blue Devils struggled to move the ball.
Duke is 5-2 and has also covered five of seven spreads. DraftKings makes it a seven-point home favorite here. Our projections give the Blue Devils about 153 rushing yards to Boston College’s 118, a very different picture from simply carrying the Eagles’ 399-yard game forward.
The passing outlook is much closer, about 236 yards for Boston College and 231 for Duke. The first-down outlook is nearly identical, at around 20 apiece. Duke’s clearest projected advantage is on the ground, while Boston College has enough expected passing production to challenge the idea of a comfortable mismatch.
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The total turns on which parts of last week repeat
The total is 47.5. Boston College’s last two games went Over their respective totals after its first five went Under. Duke has four Unders in seven games and has scored 25, 20 and 19 points in its last three outings.
Boston College’s latest rushing display and both teams’ projected passing contributions offer routes to scoring. The counterweights are Duke’s recent difficulty sustaining offense and the fact that Boston College’s last final score included a defensive touchdown. Our defensive grades are B for both teams. At this total, expecting another explosive Eagles performance requires a judgment about how repeatable those rushing gains and turnover-assisted chances are against this opponent.
Duke has the projected rushing advantage, but the near-even passing outlook and Boston College’s recent covers make separation the harder part of the favorite’s assignment. The useful test is whether Duke can generate steady offense without another late rescue, while limiting the ground-game success that drove the Eagles’ latest win.
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