Chicago doesn’t need to fix everything from its opening-night loss to make Friday’s visit to Milwaukee competitive. It does need to stop giving possessions away. The Bulls committed 27 turnovers in Toronto, yet the Bucks are just 1.5-point favorites after losing their own opener. That narrow spread puts Chicago’s response under the spotlight: can the Bulls give their shooting a chance to recover by taking better care of the ball?
A reset starts with keeping the ball
The Raptors routed Chicago 135-92 on Wednesday, turning those 27 turnovers into 35 points. Rookie Caleb Wilson committed nine of them, while the Bulls shot 4-for-36 from three. Those were two different problems: Chicago struggled both to finish possessions with shots and to make the outside shots it did get.
Our projections for Chicago offer a more ordinary picture for Friday: about 15 turnovers and 14 made threes. That’s a substantial reset from the opener, though it still leaves mistakes to manage. The turnover figure is particularly useful against such a small spread. Chicago’s path to a competitive game starts with giving its scoring options more chances rather than asking them to overcome another night of repeated giveaways.
Point guard Josh Giddey’s wrist injury update belongs in that discussion. Thursday’s report says he’s probable for Friday’s game against Milwaukee, an encouraging availability update for Chicago as it tries to clean up its possessions.
Milwaukee has its own defensive repair job
The Bucks’ 128-116 loss at Washington on Wednesday was more competitive than Chicago’s opener, but Milwaukee couldn’t hold up after halftime. The Wizards shot 63% in the second half and outscored the Bucks 77-60. Tyler Herro scored 24 points and Jaime Jaquez Jr. added 22 for Milwaukee.
That gives the narrow spread some useful context. Milwaukee showed it could produce points, but its defensive finish leaves room for a Bulls response. Our grades still favor the Bucks defensively—C compared with Chicago’s D-minus—so a better Chicago shooting night would not, by itself, settle the matchup.
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What matters at a 238.5 total
The current DraftKings total is 238.5. Chicago’s poor shooting in Toronto offers a plausible route to more scoring here, especially against a Bucks team coming off that difficult second half. Our projection of roughly 14 Bulls threes, compared with four in the opener, makes that potential rebound worth taking seriously.
There’s a counterweight: we grade Milwaukee’s offense D-plus, and fewer Chicago turnovers would also leave the Bucks fewer giveaways to exploit. At 238.5, the scoring case needs more than a Chicago shooting rebound. Milwaukee’s ability to sustain its own offense matters too, and its 116-point opener offers a more encouraging sign than our offensive grade. The two teams’ defensive problems are part of the picture, but cleaner Bulls possessions could help Chicago score while taking away opportunities at the other end.
The clearest takeaway is that Chicago’s opening score alone is a poor guide to this matchup. Milwaukee has the better defensive assessment, but its second-half breakdown gives the Bulls something to work against. With little separating the teams on the spread, ball security is the first thing to watch: fewer empty possessions would let a Chicago shooting rebound carry more weight. For the total, that same cleanup has competing effects, making Milwaukee’s scoring contribution just as important as whether Chicago starts hitting threes.
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