Montreal has the stronger attack in our analysis, but can it make that advantage count without Nick Suzuki? The Canadiens visit the Chicago Blackhawks as moneyline favorites with Suzuki out because of an upper-body injury. That leaves Montreal trying to turn its scoring ability into a more dependable result, while Chicago has an opening against a team that has struggled to protect leads—and keep pucks out of its net.
Montreal’s advantage comes with a meaningful absence
Montreal is a -148 favorite in the current DraftKings moneyline. Our grades favor the Canadiens’ attack, a B compared with Chicago’s D-, but Montreal’s 4-3-2 record shows how uneven the results have been. The Canadiens have won only four of their nine games despite some productive nights with the puck.
Tuesday’s 4-3 overtime loss to San Jose captured that tension. Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky and Suzuki each had a goal and an assist, but Montreal surrendered a two-goal advantage for the fourth time this season. Suzuki’s absence now removes one of those contributors; Oliver Kapanen centers Caufield and Slafkovsky on the first line.
Chicago’s most recent game offered a different concern. The Blackhawks lost 4-0 to Dallas on Saturday and managed only 19 shots. They had scored five against Pittsburgh and four against Winnipeg in their preceding two games, so the attack hasn’t been uniformly quiet. Still, our shot projections put Chicago at about 25 against Montreal’s 26—a modest difference in shooting volume rather than a forecast of a one-sided barrage.
The 6.5-goal total has competing pressures
Recent scoring results make the total worth a closer look. Seven of Montreal’s nine games this season have gone over their posted totals, producing a historical profit of 4.57 units from flat one-unit Over bets. Chicago’s corresponding record is six Overs in nine games. Those results came against each game’s own line; Chicago’s previous totals, in particular, have varied between 5.5 and 6.5.
Recent results from the expected goalies add to that scoring picture. Jakub Dobes has an .847 save percentage across his five most recent appearances for Montreal this season, allowing at least four goals in four of them. Spencer Knight has been better over his five most recent Chicago appearances, with an .893 save percentage, but he allowed at least three goals in four of those outings.
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Those recent goaltending struggles leave room for scoring even without heavy shot volume. The counterweight at 6.5 is the attacking uncertainty: Montreal is missing Suzuki, Chicago just endured a shutout, and our projections call for roughly three power-play opportunities apiece rather than a pronounced opportunity imbalance. There’s no projected advantage in the number of chances with the extra skater, though how each team uses those chances still matters. The recent Overs deserve attention, but so does how much reliable scoring these particular lineups can supply.
What matters most
Montreal’s stronger attacking evaluation supports its status as the favorite, but its trouble protecting leads makes this more complicated than a simple comparison of the teams’ records. Chicago’s clearest opening is Dobes’ difficult recent stretch; Montreal’s is an attack that still features Caufield and Slafkovsky against a goalie who has also been conceding regularly. At -148, the important question is how much confidence to place in Montreal sustaining that attacking advantage without Suzuki. The narrow projected shot gap leaves less room for the Canadiens to rely on volume alone, while both goalies’ recent results keep the 6.5 total from being a straightforward read of the weakened attacks.
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