Montreal has scored at least four goals in four straight games, yet those results have included plenty of trouble at the other end. Toronto’s latest game was tighter: two Jack Roslovic goals kept the Maple Leafs level before a late power-play goal beat them. Saturday’s meeting brings those different scoring patterns together, with Montreal a slight moneyline favorite and two unconfirmed projected goalies whose recent samples deserve a closer look.
Montreal can keep scoring through a difficult night
Cole Caufield scored 30 seconds into overtime to give the Canadiens a 5–4 win over Utah, according to AP’s report on ESPN. Nick Suzuki had a goal and two assists, while Adam Engstrom’s first NHL goal tied the game with 5:06 left in regulation. Jakub Dobes made 16 saves.
That win followed another 5–4 overtime game, this time a loss to Winnipeg. Montreal’s last four games have all gone over their posted totals, with the Canadiens scoring five, five, four and five goals across that stretch. The attack keeps giving them a chance, but the latest two games required overtime to settle contests in which they allowed a combined nine goals.
DraftKings has Montreal at -122 on the moneyline, with Toronto at +102. Our team grades give the Canadiens a B on offense against the Maple Leafs’ C+, while both defenses carry a B−. Montreal has won seven of its last 10 games, compared with Toronto’s five. That gives the slight favorite support from both its recent results and its offensive grade.
The counterweight is how much work Montreal has needed to finish those games. Suzuki’s two assists and Caufield’s overtime goal were important answers against Utah, but having another answer late isn’t the same as keeping control earlier. Suzuki's assists market is set at 0.5, bringing his role in creating those answers into focus.
Toronto needs more from a close game
Roslovic scored both Toronto goals in a 3–2 loss to Utah, with Auston Matthews assisting on each. As AP reported via ESPN, Sergei Bobrovsky made 33 saves, but Nick Schmaltz converted a loose puck on a power play with 6:48 remaining to break the tie.
Toronto had found an equalizer in the third period and still came away without a point. The narrow result makes the late special-teams concession more revealing than the final score alone. Against a Montreal attack that has recently kept finding goals, the Maple Leafs need their own scoring contributions to last beyond one productive connection.
Our projections put the teams close in shot volume: roughly 26 for Montreal and 27 for Toronto. With so little separating the volume forecasts, the quality of those chances matters more than the one-shot gap in the rounded figures. The recent games instead direct attention toward who gets the next dangerous opportunity—whether through a late penalty, a loose puck around the crease or the playmaking that brought Suzuki and Matthews assists in their latest outings.
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The goalie comparison is more complicated than the headline rates
Jacob Fowler is the projected Montreal starter, with Bobrovsky projected for Toronto; neither is confirmed. Fowler has a .938 save percentage over his latest five appearances, compared with Bobrovsky’s .887 across his latest five. All were starts; these are recent samples rather than full-season rates.
Fowler’s figure includes a 46-save shutout against St. Louis, followed more recently by outings in which he allowed four goals to Pittsburgh and five to Winnipeg. His strong overall sample hasn’t meant uniformly quiet nights. He also didn’t play in Montreal’s latest win, which came with Dobes in net. Bobrovsky, meanwhile, stopped 33 of 36 shots against Utah, a better save rate than his five-start figure. Each goalie’s latest work gives a different impression from his broader sample.
The total is 6.5 goals. Montreal has gone over in 11 of 16 games this season, compared with 10 of Toronto’s 17. The Canadiens’ four-game over streak is part of that larger record, while Toronto’s latest two games have both gone under. Montreal’s sustained scoring explains much of the recent over trend, but Toronto’s tighter latest results and Fowler’s broader save rate push back against expecting another shootout. The question is whether Montreal can keep producing while giving its goalie less work.
Montreal brings the clearer recent offensive form, but its latest wins have left little room to relax. Toronto’s opportunity is to make the next decisive chance count while limiting how often the Canadiens get to answer back. For Montreal, a steadier game in front of the goalie would make its scoring strength easier to turn into control rather than another late recovery.
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