Montreal heads to Washington with two straight shootout wins, but the Canadiens’ recent success in net won’t automatically travel with them. Jakub Dobes takes over after Jacob Fowler handled both victories, making the change in goal a bigger consideration than the winning streak against a modestly favored Capitals team.
Two wins, but a different test in net
The Canadiens edged Buffalo 4-3 in a shootout Tuesday, with Cole Caufield and Lane Hutson each contributing a goal and an assist. Juraj Slafkovsky added two assists. That followed Saturday’s 1-0 shootout win over Detroit, when Fowler made 30 saves. Montreal has found ways to win two very different games, although it surrendered a two-goal lead against the Sabres.
Dobes' recent results give Montreal a different starting point in net. Across his three most recent appearances, all this season, he stopped 78 of 91 shots for an .857 save percentage and allowed 13 goals. His two latest outings included six goals against Pittsburgh and five against Carolina. It’s a small sample, but it’s a meaningful reason to separate Montreal’s winning streak from the goaltending it brings to Washington.
The Canadiens also have Mike Matheson out with a lower-body injury. That’s an absence on the blue line to consider alongside the production Montreal got from Caufield, Hutson and Slafkovsky on Tuesday.
Washington has an edge, not a wide gap
Washington is a modest favorite in the current moneyline odds, at -130 with DraftKings against Montreal’s +110. Our grades don’t show a wide gap: both clubs receive a B for their attack and a C+ defensively. Our shot projections give Washington a small volume advantage, about 28 shots to Montreal’s 26, rather than a dramatically different workload at either end.
Washington still has its own response to make after losing 4-2 to Carolina on Tuesday. The Capitals led twice before conceding the deciding goal on a third-period power play. Both teams are playing on consecutive nights and traveling from Tuesday’s games, so this isn’t a rested home team waiting for a tired visitor.
Charlie Lindgren is Washington’s expected goalie. He stopped 27 of 29 shots against Tampa Bay on October 3, a strong performance, though one outing offers limited evidence of a lasting advantage. Washington’s case rests on a slightly higher expected shot count and Dobes’ early struggles, not a broad separation between the teams.
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How that fits a 6.5-goal total
Dobes’ recent results make the 6.5-goal total worth a close look. In their six most recent games this season, Montreal went over its posted total four times, while Washington split three overs and three unders. Montreal’s attacking contributors are coming off a productive night, and neither team’s defensive grade suggests a clear strength.
The counterweight is opportunity volume. Our projections call for roughly three power-play chances per team and about 54 shots combined, rather than a particularly busy shooting night. Lindgren’s strong appearance against Tampa Bay also pushes against simply expecting another high-scoring Dobes game. At 6.5, the useful distinction is between a vulnerable recent goalie sample and evidence of a high-volume matchup; the goalie concern is the stronger part of that scoring case.
Washington’s modest favorite status fits the narrow advantages in the evidence, but Montreal’s productive attackers and the closely matched grades keep this from looking one-sided. Dobes doesn’t need to reproduce Fowler’s shutout to change the picture: an improvement on his recent outings would blunt Washington’s clearest matchup argument. That’s why Montreal’s change in goal matters more here than its two-game winning streak—and why that concern alone isn’t enough to make the 6.5 total look straightforward.
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