Indianapolis kept Jonathan Taylor at the trade deadline and moved two starting receivers and guard Quenton Nelson. Miami comes in with a first-time NFL starter in Kyle McCord. Those changes make it worth asking how the Colts would move the ball in a win.
If you see Indianapolis getting ahead, Taylor’s carries tell you how often the Colts can stay with the run. Tyler Warren offers a way to look at their shorter throws, while Jordyn Brooks’ tackles give you a way to follow how much work Indianapolis gives Miami’s linebackers.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor Over 15.5 rushing attempts |
−125 | 90.0% 9 of 10 IND wins |
76.9% 20 of 26 games |
| Tyler Warren 40+ receiving yards |
−165 | 90.0% 9 of 10 IND wins |
58.3% 14 of 24 games |
| Jordyn Brooks 8+ tackles and assists |
−244 | 88.2% 15 of 17 MIA losses |
84.0% 21 of 25 games |
Jonathan Taylor · Over 15.5 rushing attempts
Taylor had 23 carries against Houston and 20 against Washington, the Colts’ two wins this season. Houston held him to 68 yards, but Indianapolis kept handing him the ball in a two-point game. That’s the kind of win the carry line can capture even if Miami keeps his gains short.
Taylor fell to eight carries at Jacksonville and 13 against Dallas, both losses. The Colts will have rookie Jalen Farmer in a bigger role after the Nelson trade, while Miami is without Zach Sieler. Taylor can fall short if Indianapolis struggles to sustain drives and spends long stretches throwing.
Tyler Warren · 40+ receiving yards
Warren reached 55 yards on nine catches against Houston and 41 on five at Washington. He cleared 40 even though his longest catch in either win was 15 yards. With Keenan Allen and Josh Downs traded and Alec Pierce still on injured reserve, a steady stream of short and intermediate targets is one way he can get there again.
The 40-yard alternate costs more than the main line. The extra room mattered in Washington, and Warren would have cleared it with 44 against Dallas. Four catches brought him just 18 yards at Jacksonville, though. If Miami keeps those completions close to the line of scrimmage, he may need more chances to reach 40.
Jordyn Brooks · 8+ tackles and assists
Brooks made 11 tackles against New England and 12 against Detroit in Miami’s last two losses. Eight of his stops against Detroit were assists. That matters here because Brooks can build the count by helping finish plays over the middle and in the run game.
He’s cleared eight in most games either way, and the line costs more than the nine-tackle alternative. Miami’s loss to Cincinnati shows what that extra cushion buys. Brooks landed on eight, with seven assists. A Colts offense that scores quickly or leaves the field after short possessions would give him fewer plays to get there.
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How do you see Indianapolis winning?
Taylor’s carry line fits if you expect the Colts to keep the game close or play from ahead. Warren’s yardage is the more direct way to focus on how the changing receiving group moves the chains. Brooks’ tackles can build through either kind of drive as long as Indianapolis keeps the ball and runs plays.
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