Jonathan Taylor helped Indianapolis win a second straight game with a productive afternoon in London, but keeping that momentum going against Pittsburgh presents a different challenge. Our analysis gives the Colts the stronger offensive evaluation, while the Steelers bring more balance and a higher yardage projection. The question is whether Taylor and Daniel Jones can turn Indianapolis’ offensive promise into another productive afternoon without the turnovers they survived last week.
Taylor gives the Colts a starting point
Indianapolis beat Washington 30-13 on Sunday behind Taylor’s 95 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries. That gave the Colts a reliable route to points even as Jones finished with 143 passing yards, an interception and a lost fumble. The win was convincing, but Washington also lost its starting quarterback early and played most of the game with a rookie backup.
We give Indianapolis an A- offensive grade with Jones at quarterback, compared with Pittsburgh’s B with Aaron Rodgers. The other side of the matchup is less favorable for the Colts: we grade their defense C and Pittsburgh’s defense B. Indianapolis has the stronger offensive evaluation, but Pittsburgh has fewer weaknesses across those two units.
Our team projections also temper expectations for another big Colts outing. We project roughly 290 total yards for Indianapolis, including about 195 through the air and 100 on the ground. That rushing figure is for the whole team, so Taylor approaching his London production again would account for much of it. Ball security matters here: the Colts won comfortably despite Jones’ turnovers last week, but those mistakes could be harder to absorb against Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh has production—and a receiving concern
The Steelers lost 27-24 at Cleveland last Thursday, but Rodgers threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns as Pittsburgh erased a 21-7 deficit. Jaylen Warren added 93 rushing yards, and DK Metcalf caught five passes for 115 yards. Rodgers also threw two interceptions, including one on his final Hail Mary attempt, and Cleveland sacked him five times. There was plenty of production, but protection and ball security remain important parts of the picture.
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Michael Pittman Jr. is out with a foot injury, removing a receiver who was involved in that Cleveland game. Backup running back Rico Dowdle is questionable with a toe injury. For Indianapolis, receiver Keenan Allen is questionable with a groin injury after limited participation Wednesday, while Pittsburgh cornerback Jalen Ramsey is questionable with a wrist injury. Those receiving and coverage statuses are worth following as Sunday approaches.
We project about 325 total yards for Pittsburgh, including roughly 220 passing yards. That gives the Steelers the higher expected yardage output despite Indianapolis’ stronger offensive grade—a useful counterweight to judging this matchup by one evaluation alone.
What matters at a short spread
DraftKings makes Pittsburgh a 2.5-point favorite. At that number, a Steelers win and a Steelers cover are different questions: a one- or two-point victory wouldn’t cover the spread. Pittsburgh’s more balanced grades and higher yardage projection support a competitive home performance, while Taylor’s recent production gives Indianapolis a credible way to keep the game close.
Taylor’s running gives the Colts their clearest foundation, but Pittsburgh’s balance and higher projected yardage make another comfortable Indianapolis win a tougher task. The biggest swing factor is how well the quarterbacks protect possessions: Jones needs to avoid the mistakes Indianapolis survived in London, while Rodgers needs enough protection to sustain production with Pittman unavailable. At a short spread, keeping promising drives from ending in turnovers could matter more than either team’s strongest grade.
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