Vegas stopped a three-game losing streak Tuesday, while New Jersey’s four-game winning run ended Wednesday. Their meeting now comes with almost nothing between them in the odds: the Golden Knights are -115 and the Devils -105. The more revealing comparison is how those latest results unfolded, with special teams and late goals doing much of the work behind the final scores.
Vegas won, but its penalty kill still has a problem
The Golden Knights beat Ottawa 4-1, with Raphael Lavoie breaking a third-period tie before William Karlsson and Jack Eichel added empty-net goals. The margin grew late; Vegas hadn’t built a comfortable scoring cushion through the earlier stages.
Special teams supplied both a breakthrough and a warning. Braeden Bowman scored on a power play late in the second period, but Shane Pinto answered on Ottawa’s power play early in the third. Vegas has now allowed a power-play goal in six consecutive games.
New Jersey scored short-handed in Colorado through Connor Brown, while the Avalanche answered with a power-play goal in the second period. Special teams were central to both teams’ latest games. Our projections suggest roughly three power-play opportunities apiece Friday, making Vegas’ recent penalty-killing results a relevant vulnerability to watch.
New Jersey’s collapse came after two close periods
The Devils were tied 1-1 entering the third period Wednesday before Colorado scored twice in 1:02 and twice more in a 30-second span later in the period. Brown scored both New Jersey goals, and Jake Allen made 39 saves in the 5-2 loss.
That finish interrupted a better stretch. New Jersey had won four straight and allowed just one goal in each of the three games immediately before Colorado. Across their last 10 games, all from this season, the Devils are 7-3. Vegas is 6-4 over its last 10, with Tuesday’s win following defeats against Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Columbus.
Our grades give Vegas the stronger attack, B+ against New Jersey’s B-, and a B+ defensive grade against the Devils’ B. That’s a case for taking the home team’s overall quality seriously despite its recent skid. New Jersey’s stronger recent results and the Golden Knights’ penalty-killing trouble provide the counterweight in such a closely priced matchup.
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The goalies and the 6.5 total
Connor Hellebuyck and Carter Hart are the expected goalies. Hellebuyck stopped 17 of 18 shots in Tuesday’s 5-1 win at Dallas. It’s an encouraging outing, though his available New Jersey sample is just that one appearance.
Hart’s last five appearances for Vegas produced an .888 save percentage. His latest was 18 saves on 20 shots in a 2-1 loss at Columbus, while the same five-game stretch includes six goals allowed against Tampa Bay. Those results show why the stronger Vegas defensive grade doesn’t remove uncertainty in net.
DraftKings has the total at 6.5. Nine of Vegas’ 14 games this season have gone Over, alongside seven of New Jersey’s 13. The recent penalty-killing streak, Colorado’s quick scoring bursts and Hart’s uneven five-game results all give substance to the scoring case.
The counterweight is New Jersey’s run of one-goal defensive outings before Wednesday, Hellebuyck’s Dallas performance and the shape of Vegas’ latest win. Two empty-net goals made that final score more comfortable without showing a sustained offensive breakout. We project about 30 shots for New Jersey and 29 for Vegas, a close shooting-volume outlook that leaves special-teams execution especially useful to assess.
Vegas brings the stronger team grades; New Jersey brings the better last-10 record. The tight moneyline fits that tension. Vegas’ next step is to build on Tuesday’s win while interrupting its penalty-killing problems, and the Devils need to avoid another concentrated third-period breakdown. Those specific tests offer more guidance than either latest final score alone.
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