Detroit gets the cleaner schedule against New Jersey on Tuesday, but the rest advantage isn’t the whole story. The Devils arrive for the second half of a back-to-back after losing to Ottawa, while Detroit hasn’t played since Saturday. With both teams struggling early and the moneyline nearly even, the interesting contrast is Detroit’s extra recovery time against New Jersey’s modest projected shooting advantage—and two expected goalies whose recent results have been uneven.
Detroit’s schedule edge comes with a scoring question
New Jersey lost 4-1 to Ottawa on Monday, despite putting 30 shots on Linus Ullmark. Arseny Gritsyuk supplied the Devils’ only goal late in the third period. That leaves New Jersey at 2-3-0, with a quick turnaround and a trip from Newark to Detroit.
The Red Wings have had two days without a game, but their latest outing wasn’t an offensive breakthrough: they lost 1-0 to Montreal in a shootout on Saturday. Detroit generated 30 shots without scoring and fell to 1-3-1. The extra time between games is a practical advantage, not evidence that its scoring problems are solved.
DraftKings’ moneyline prices make Detroit a slight favorite at -115, with New Jersey at -105. Our overall grades put both clubs at B-, which fits a matchup without a large separation. The units offer a more useful distinction: we rate Detroit’s attack B- against New Jersey’s C, while the Devils have the stronger defensive grade, B versus B-. Detroit’s path is to turn its better-rated attack and schedule advantage into production; New Jersey’s is to keep the game manageable while generating enough shots of its own.
The expected goalies complicate the 6.5-goal total
Jake Allen and John Gibson are expected in goal for New Jersey and Detroit, respectively. Allen stopped 20 of 21 shots against Vancouver on Saturday, but allowed five goals against Utah in the appearance before that. His save percentage across that three-appearance sample this season is .896. Allen didn’t play in Monday’s loss, so the Devils’ back-to-back doesn’t mean their expected goalie is making consecutive starts.
Gibson’s four-appearance sample is shakier: an .862 save percentage, including five goals allowed on 15 shots against Seattle on Friday. Detroit’s scoreless game in Montreal came with Daniil Tarasov in net, so that result doesn’t describe Gibson’s recent performance.
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Those goalie results are an important counterweight at a total of 6.5. Looking at their early-season results, both teams have gone Under in three of their five games, and neither attack has been consistently productive. There have been brighter nights, though: New Jersey scored four against Vancouver on Saturday, and Detroit scored five against Ottawa last Tuesday. The expected goalies’ uneven results leave room for scoring even without an unusually busy shooting night.
Our shooting projections call for roughly 30 shots from New Jersey and 28 from Detroit—a modest volume edge for the Devils, rather than an overwhelming gap. We also project around three power-play opportunities for each team. Ottawa scored on the power play Monday after New Jersey repeatedly went to the penalty box. Another penalty-heavy outing would put more pressure on the Devils’ ability to contain Detroit, although the opportunity projections alone don’t establish how effectively either team will use those chances.
What matters most
Detroit’s extra time between games is its clearest situational advantage, but the Red Wings haven’t shown enough scoring consistency to make that advantage decisive. New Jersey’s projected shooting edge gives it a plausible way to stay competitive, especially if Allen builds on his Vancouver performance. The key is whether Detroit can turn its fresher legs and better-rated attack into more effective offense, rather than simply another night of shots without goals. At 6.5, the recent Unders deserve attention, but Gibson’s struggles and the potential for power-play chances make a repeat of the latest low-scoring games far from automatic.
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