The Rangers have a chance to get their scoring back on track against Anaheim, but the Ducks bring enough attacking promise to make this more than a simple bounce-back spot. New York has scored just once in its past two games, while our analysis rates Anaheim’s attack more highly. The key question Monday is whether the Rangers can take advantage of the Ducks’ defensive vulnerability while keeping Anaheim’s own attack in check.
New York needs more than another good night in net
The Rangers lost 1-0 in overtime at Columbus on Saturday, with Dylan Garand making 28 saves. They had three power plays in the third period without converting. That followed a 7-1 loss at New Jersey on Thursday—a rough two-game scoring stretch after New York had scored 10 goals across wins over Vancouver and Tampa Bay.
Garand’s recent work offers a more encouraging picture. Across his last five appearances this season, he has a .911 save percentage, compared with Lukas Dostal’s .877 over his last five for Anaheim. Garand allowed one goal in three of those appearances, although he also gave up four on 13 shots against New Jersey. There’s a meaningful recent advantage there for New York, but it hasn’t been a smooth run every night.
That helps frame the current DraftKings moneyline: the Rangers are -142 favorites, with the Ducks at +120. New York has the better recent goaltending results and our stronger defensive grade, B- versus Anaheim’s D+. The price still asks bettors to trust an attack that has gone quiet over its past two outings.
Anaheim has a credible way to push back
Our grades favor the Ducks’ attack, B to the Rangers’ C, and our shot projections put Anaheim at roughly 30 shots to New York’s 25. That’s a useful reason to take the visiting attack seriously: we expect the Ducks to generate more shooting volume, even against the team with the better defensive evaluation.
Anaheim also has a recent example of how that opportunity can slip away. The Ducks built a two-goal lead against Boston on Friday before losing 4-2. Beckett Sennecke scored his fifth goal of the season, but Boston scored three times on the power play. Anaheim’s attacking threat was real; so was its difficulty protecting the lead.
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Why the 6.5 total isn’t a simple scoring story
Anaheim’s defensive grade and Dostal’s recent save percentage give New York a plausible opening for a better offensive night. Pair that with the Ducks’ stronger attacking grade and expected shot volume, and there are clear ingredients for scoring on both sides at a total of 6.5.
The counterweight is substantial, though: Garand has delivered several strong appearances, and the Rangers have managed only one goal across their past two games. Five of Anaheim’s seven most recent games this season have also finished under their posted totals, all of which were 6.5. Those early results are a useful check against assuming a high-scoring game simply because the Ducks’ defense rates poorly.
The matchup hinges on New York’s response
The Rangers’ favorite status has support in the defensive and goaltending comparison, but Anaheim’s stronger attack and projected five-shot advantage make New York’s scoring response especially important. A more favorable defensive matchup gives the Rangers an opening; their recent scoring slump is the reason not to treat a rebound as automatic. The key is whether New York can provide enough offensive support to make its advantage at the other end count, rather than asking another strong performance in net to carry the night.
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