MLB matchup
10/04/20264:00 PMAmerican Family FieldMilwaukee, WI

Padres91 – 71vsBrewers103 – 59

Sharp side
Model value
Sharp total
Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

TeamLineupPitchingOverall
San Diego PadresB+BB
Milwaukee BrewersA-A-A-
Featured analysis

Matchup preview

Oil painting of American Family Field on baseball game dayPadres vs. Brewers preview: Milwaukee’s edge meets a narrow marginMilwaukee’s stronger lineup and pitching grades support its favorite status, but San Diego brings seven wins in its last 10 games. King’s ability to limit extra baserunners is a key test.Read analysis
Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings
TeamMoneylineRun Line
SD+113+1.5 (-198)
MIL-136-1.5 (+162)
Total 7.0Over -118Under -102
Recent form

Last 3 games

San Diego Padres

Overall2–1–0W–L–TRun Line3–0–0W–L–PO/U1–2–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultRun LineTotal
10/3/26@ MILL 2–3W +1.5U 7
9/30/26vs CHCW 4–1W -1.5U 7
9/29/26vs CHCW 8–0W -1.5O 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Milwaukee Brewers

Overall3–0–0W–L–TRun Line1–2–0W–L–PO/U1–2–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultRun LineTotal
10/3/26vs SDW 3–2L -1.5U 7
9/27/26vs STLW 6–4W -1.5O 7
9/26/26vs STLW 3–2L -1.5U 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Padres and Brewers
Statistic
6.8 (8.1)Hits7.5 (8.6)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

PadresMichael KingConfirmed
Player props1 of 5 markets
Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-13457.3%Under+10149.8%
BrewersLogan HendersonConfirmed
Player props1 of 5 markets
Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%

Starting lineups

San Diego PadresConfirmed
  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
    Player props1 of 9 markets
    Total Bases1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16362.0%
  2. 2Dustin HarrisLF
    Player props1 of 8 markets
    Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50416.6%Under-82089.1%
  3. 3Manny Machado3B
    Player props1 of 7 markets
    Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47717.3%Under-76088.4%
  4. 4Ty France1B
    Player props1 of 7 markets
    Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43118.8%Under-68087.2%
  5. 5Jackson MerrillCF
    Player props1 of 9 markets
    Total Bases1.5Over+12943.7%Under-17263.2%
  6. 6Gavin SheetsDH
    Player props1 of 7 markets
    Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59914.3%Under-100090.9%
  7. 7Xander BogaertsSS
    Player props1 of 8 markets
    Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58314.6%Under-97090.7%
  8. 8Luis CampusanoC
    Player props1 of 7 markets
    Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+63013.7%Under-106091.4%
  9. 9Jake Cronenworth2B
    Player props1 of 7 markets
    Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+71012.3%Under-124092.5%
Milwaukee BrewersConfirmed
  1. 1Jackson ChourioLF
    Player props1 of 9 markets
    Total Bases1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16261.8%
  2. 2Brice Turang2B
    Player props1 of 8 markets
    Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38820.5%Under-59785.7%
  3. 3Jake Bauers1B
    Player props1 of 7 markets
    Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44818.2%Under-71087.7%
  4. 4William ContrerasC
    Player props1 of 7 markets
    Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45917.9%Under-73088.0%
  5. 5Garrett MitchellCF
    Player props1 of 8 markets
    Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49216.9%Under-79088.8%
  6. 6Christian YelichDH
    Player props1 of 8 markets
    Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50916.4%Under-82089.1%
  7. 7Sal FrelickRF
    Player props1 of 7 markets
    Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53815.7%Under-88089.8%
  8. 8Cooper PrattSS
    Player props1 of 8 markets
    Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+57114.9%Under-95090.5%
  9. 9David Hamilton3B
    Player props1 of 7 markets
    Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+69012.7%Under-120092.3%

Player availability

Injury report

San Diego Padres
  • RPBryan HoeingElbow60-Day-IL
    The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
    Updated: May 8, 2026 at 7:02 AM EDT
  • SPCasey MizeAnkle15-Day-IL
    Mize (6-10) allowed seven runs on seven hits, two walks and a hit batsman while striking out one over four innings to take the loss versus the Diamondbacks on Friday.
    Updated: Sep 26, 2026 at 5:47 PM EDT
  • RPJeremiah EstradaShoulder15-Day-IL
    Estrada (shoulder) hadn't resumed throwing as of Sept. 8, and he may not be able to return from the injured list before the end of the campaign, MLB.com reports.
    Updated: Sep 12, 2026 at 4:06 PM EDT
Milwaukee Brewers
  • RPAngel ZerpaElbow60-Day-IL
    The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.
    Updated: May 31, 2026 at 1:56 PM EDT
  • SPBrandon WoodruffShoulder60-Day-IL
    Woodruff (shoulder) completed the flat-ground portion of his throwing program Sunday and is awaiting to receive clearance to throw off the mound, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
    Updated: Sep 29, 2026 at 3:54 PM EDT
  • RPBrian FitzpatrickElbow60-Day-IL
    Fitzpatrick (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery over the past week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
    Updated: Jul 4, 2026 at 8:09 PM EDT

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