NHL matchup
10/08/20267:00 PMBenchmark International ArenaTampa, FL

Wild2 – 1 – 1vsLightning3 – 1 – 0

Sharp side
✈️ Wild +120
Model value
Team trendMinnesota Wild: +1.91 units outright in past year

Outright bets on the Minnesota Wild have won in 52 of 96 games (54.2%) in the past year, returning a profit of 1.91 units when betting one unit per game.

Sharp total
↑ Over 6.5
Model value
Team trendMinnesota Wild games: +6.94 units on Over in past year

54 of 96 games (56.3%) featuring the Minnesota Wild have gone Over in the past year, returning a profit of 6.94 units when betting one unit per game.

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Minnesota Wild3.551.8%
Tampa Bay Lightning3.348.2%
Matchup intelligence

Team grades

TeamSkatersGoalieOverall
Minnesota WildA-BB
Tampa Bay LightningA-CB
Featured analysis

Matchup preview

Illustrated interior of Benchmark International Arena in Tampa during a professional ice hockey gameWild vs. Lightning preview: Tampa Bay’s defensive edge meets a close shooting matchupTampa Bay is favored, but our projections suggest little separation in shooting volume. Minnesota’s challenge is turning a competitive attack into a complete game.Read analysis
Sportsbook context

Game lines

Best price Highlighted offers compare the same selection and line across the books shown.— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
MIN+120+1.5 (-205)
TB-142-1.5 (+170)
Total 6.5Over +110Under -130
BetMGM
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
MIN+120+1.5 (-200)
TB-145-1.5 (+165)
Total 6.0Over -120Under +100
BetRivers
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
MIN+130+1.5 (-205)
TB-155-1.5 (+163)
Total 6.5Over +112Under -139
Caesars
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
MIN+121—
TB-143—
Total —Over —Under —
Circa Sports
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
MIN+129+1.5 (-185)
TB-144-1.5 (+160)
Total 6.0Over -115Under -105
FanDuel
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
MIN+120+1.5 (-210)
TB-144-1.5 (+168)
Total 6.0Over -122Under +100
Hard Rock Bet
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
MIN+125+1.5 (-210)
TB-145-1.5 (+160)
Total 6.5Over +105Under -130
theScore Bet
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
MIN+120+1.5 (-210)
TB-140-1.5 (+170)
Total 6.5Over +110Under -130
Recent form

Last 10 games

Minnesota Wild

Overall5–5–0W–L–TPuck Line6–4–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultPuck LineTotal
10/6/26@ BUFL 2–3L -1.5U 6.5
10/3/26vs BOSW 4–1W -1.5U 6.5
10/1/26@ NSHW 3–1W -1.5U 6.5
5/13/26@ COLL 3–4W +1.5O 6.5
5/11/26vs COLL 2–5L +1.5O 6.5
5/9/26vs COLW 5–1W +1.5U 6.5
5/5/26@ COLL 2–5L +1.5O 6.5
5/3/26@ COLL 6–9L +1.5O 6.5
4/30/26vs DALW 5–2W -1.5O 5.5
4/28/26@ DALW 4–2W +1.5O 5.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Overall5–5–0W–L–TPuck Line2–8–0W–L–PO/U2–8–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultPuck LineTotal
10/5/26vs PHIW 4–1W -1.5U 5.5
10/3/26vs WSHW 3–1W -1.5U 6.5
10/1/26@ NYRL 1–5L -1.5O 5.5
5/3/26vs MTLL 1–2L -1.5U 5.5
5/1/26@ MTLW 1–0L -1.5U 5.5
4/29/26vs MTLL 2–3L -1.5U 5.5
4/26/26@ MTLW 3–2L -1.5U 5.5
4/24/26@ MTLL 2–3L -1.5U 6.5
4/21/26vs MTLW 3–2L -1.5U 5.5
4/19/26vs MTLL 3–4L -1.5O 6.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Wild and Lightning
Statistic
29.1 (29.1)Shots28.2 (28.2)
22.7 (22.7)Hits21.2 (21.1)
15.5 (15.6)Blocked Shots12.2 (12.5)
27.6 (27.3)Faceoffs Won27.2 (26.2)
3.2 (3.2)Power Play Opportunities3.1 (3.1)
4.5 (4.5)Takeaways4.2 (4.2)
14.9 (14.9)Giveaways15.0 (15.0)
3.5 (3.4)Penalties5.4 (5.2)

Starting goalie context

Expected goalies

WildJesper WallstedtConfirmed
Player props1 market
Total Saves25.5Over-11052.4%Under-12054.5%
LightningDennis HildebyConfirmed
Player props1 market
Total Saves23.5Over-12555.6%Under-11052.4%
Lineup context

Projected lines

Minnesota Wild
First line
  • CDanila Yurov
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+31024.4%Under-45081.8%
    Total Points0.5Over+17037.0%Under-23570.1%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
  • LWKirill Kaprizov
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+12544.4%Under-16562.3%
    Total Points0.5Over-19065.5%Under+14041.7%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over-16562.3%Under+12045.5%
  • DQuinn Hughes
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
    Total Points0.5Over-16061.5%Under+11546.5%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over+11546.5%Under-15560.8%
  • DJared Spurgeon
    Player props2 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+23529.9%Under-33076.7%
    Total Points0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24571.0%
Second line
  • CJoel Eriksson Ek
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25071.4%
    Total Points0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12054.5%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%
  • LWBlake Coleman
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+25528.2%Under-36078.3%
    Total Points0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17063.0%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-18064.3%Under+13043.5%
  • RWMatt Boldy
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15060.0%
    Total Points0.5Over-19566.1%Under+14540.8%
    Total Shots on Goal3.5Over+13043.5%Under-18064.3%
  • DDaemon Hunt
  • DJonas Brodin
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+60014.3%Under-100090.9%
    Total Blocked Shots1.5Over-16562.3%Under+11546.5%
    Total Points0.5Over+45018.2%Under-65086.7%
Tampa Bay Lightning
First line
  • CBrayden Point
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19065.5%
    Total Points0.5Over-16562.3%Under+12045.5%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over+12544.4%Under-17063.0%
  • LWGage Goncalves
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+20532.8%Under-28073.7%
    Total Points0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16562.3%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17563.6%
  • RWNikita Kucherov
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over-20066.7%Under+14540.8%
    Total Points1.5Over+11047.6%Under-15060.0%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over-15560.8%Under+11546.5%
  • DJ.J. Moser
    Player props2 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+31024.4%Under-45081.8%
    Total Points0.5Over+24029.4%Under-33076.7%
  • DJohn Carlson
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15560.8%
    Total Points0.5Over-12555.6%Under-11052.4%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-19566.1%Under+14540.8%
Second line
  • CAnthony Cirelli
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+20532.8%Under-28073.7%
    Total Points0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14559.2%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-13056.5%Under-10551.2%
  • LWBrandon Hagel
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+13043.5%Under-17563.6%
    Total Points0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12544.4%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over-14559.2%Under+10548.8%
  • RWJake Guentzel
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+11047.6%Under-14559.2%
    Total Points0.5Over-20567.2%Under+15040.0%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
  • DRyan McDonagh
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+38020.8%Under-57585.2%
    Total Blocked Shots1.5Over-12555.6%Under-11553.5%
    Total Points0.5Over+33023.3%Under-47582.6%
  • DErik Cernak
    Player props2 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+40020.0%Under-65086.7%
    Total Points0.5Over+34022.7%Under-50083.3%


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