Tampa Bay has allowed just one goal in each of its past two wins, while Minnesota heads into Thursday’s matchup after letting a two-goal lead slip away in Buffalo. Finishing the job is an interesting theme for the Wild—but the Lightning’s bigger question is whether their defensive edge can separate two attacks that look closely matched in our analysis.
Two very different finishes
Minnesota lost 3-2 in overtime to Buffalo on Tuesday after taking a 2-0 lead into the third period. Danila Yurov and Maxim Shabanov supplied the goals, and Jesper Wallstedt made 25 saves. The Wild put themselves in a strong position; protecting that advantage was where the night unraveled.
Tampa Bay beat Philadelphia 4-1 on Monday, with goals from Pontus Holmberg, Ilya Mikheyev, Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel. Andrei Vasilevskiy needed only 13 saves, while Nikita Kucherov contributed two assists. That followed a 3-1 win over Washington on Saturday, giving the Lightning consecutive wins with just two goals allowed between them.
Why the favorite still has work to do
DraftKings has Tampa Bay at -155 on the moneyline, with Minnesota at +130. Our grades give the Lightning a clear edge on defense: A- compared with the Wild’s B. With Vasilevskiy in Tampa Bay’s net and Wallstedt in Minnesota’s, we rate the Lightning’s defensive unit and goaltending more highly.
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The attacking comparison is much closer. We give both offenses a B+, and our shot projections put each team at roughly 28. That gives Minnesota a plausible route to making this competitive by keeping pace in shooting volume. What happens to those shots matters, though: a similar number reaching the net can still produce very different results.
There’s also a limit to how much Monday’s win tells us. Philadelphia had scored two or fewer goals in each of its first four games, so Tampa Bay’s low-workload night came against an attack that was already struggling. Minnesota presents a different test, with Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy among its attacking options.
The deciding question
Tampa Bay’s strongest case is its better-rated defense, backed by two recent wins in which it kept scoring down. Minnesota’s counterweight is an attack we rate just as highly and a shooting projection that leaves little separation. The difference is more likely to come from how effectively those attacks finish and how well the defenses and goalies respond than from a large gap in shot volume. For the Wild, sustaining their game through the finish matters after Tuesday’s lost lead.
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