NHL matchup

10/17/20264:00 PMBenchmark International ArenaTampa, FL

Canucks2 – 7 – 1vsLightning6 – 2 – 0

Sharp side

✈️ Canucks +300

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 6.5

Model value

Team trendVancouver Canucks games: +4.62 units on Over in past year

48 of 87 games (55.2%) featuring the Vancouver Canucks have gone Over in the past year, returning a profit of 4.62 units when betting one unit per game.

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Vancouver Canucks	2.7	24.4%
Tampa Bay Lightning	4.5	75.6%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Skaters	Goalie	Overall
Vancouver Canucks	D-	D-	D-
Tampa Bay Lightning	A-	C+	B

Featured analysis

Matchup preview

Editorial oil painting of Benchmark International Arena in Tampa

Canucks vs. Lightning preview: Tampa Bay’s edge comes at a steep priceTampa Bay is a heavy favorite against a Vancouver team struggling to score. Our projections and recent goalie results help frame the price—and the 6.5-goal total.Read analysis

Sportsbook context

Game lines

Best price Highlighted offers compare the same selection and line across the books shown.— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylinePuck Line

VAN+300+1.5 (+136)

TB-380-1.5 (-162)

Total 6.5Over -115Under -105

BetMGM

TeamMoneylinePuck Line

VAN+300+1.5 (+120)

TB-375-1.5 (-155)

Total 6.5Over -120Under +100

BetRivers

TeamMoneylinePuck Line

VAN+280+1.5 (+135)

TB-400-1.5 (-167)

Total 6.5Over -112Under -112

Caesars

TeamMoneylinePuck Line

VAN+305—

TB-400—

Total —Over —Under —

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylinePuck Line

VAN+331+1.5 (+128)

TB-385-1.5 (-148)

Total 6.5Over -125Under +105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylinePuck Line

VAN+285+1.5 (+128)

TB-365-1.5 (-158)

Total 6.5Over -128Under +104

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylinePuck Line

VAN+325+1.5 (+140)

TB-450-1.5 (-185)

Total 6.5Over -115Under -105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylinePuck Line

VAN+300+1.5 (+135)

TB-400-1.5 (-160)

Total 6.5Over -115Under -105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Vancouver Canucks

Overall2–8–0W–L–TPuck Line5–5–0W–L–PO/U5–5–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Puck Line	Total
10/15/26	@ FLA	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 6.5
10/13/26	@ NYI	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 5.5
10/11/26	@ NYR	L 2–6	L +1.5	O 6.5
10/10/26	@ NJ	L 1–4	L +1.5	U 6.5
10/8/26	@ CAR	L 2–7	L +1.5	O 6.5
10/4/26	vs VGK	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 6.5
10/3/26	vs CGY	W 4–1	W -1.5	U 6.5
10/1/26	vs EDM	L 7–9	L +1.5	O 6.5
9/29/26	@ EDM	W 6–5	W +1.5	O 6.5
4/16/26	@ EDM	L 1–6	L +1.5	O 6.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Overall6–4–0W–L–TPuck Line3–7–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Puck Line	Total
10/15/26	vs SEA	W 4–3	L -1.5	O 6.5
10/13/26	@ NYR	L 1–4	L -1.5	U 5.5
10/10/26	@ NYI	W 5–3	W -1.5	O 5.5
10/8/26	vs MIN	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 6.5
10/5/26	vs PHI	W 4–1	W -1.5	U 5.5
10/3/26	vs WSH	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 6.5
10/1/26	@ NYR	L 1–5	L -1.5	O 5.5
5/3/26	vs MTL	L 1–2	L -1.5	U 5.5
5/1/26	@ MTL	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 5.5
4/29/26	vs MTL	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 5.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Canucks and Lightning
	Statistic
25.6 (25.6)	Shots	28.6 (28.6)
21.3 (21.3)	Hits	20.7 (21.0)
13.7 (13.6)	Blocked Shots	12.3 (12.3)
26.9 (27.0)	Faceoffs Won	26.1 (26.1)
2.9 (2.9)	Power Play Opportunities	3.2 (3.2)
4.4 (4.4)	Takeaways	4.2 (4.2)
15.3 (15.5)	Giveaways	14.8 (14.8)
3.5 (3.5)	Penalties	5.1 (5.1)

Starting goalie context

Expected goalies

CanucksKevin LankinenConfirmed

LightningDennis HildebyConfirmed

Player props1 market

Total Saves20.5Over-11052.4%Under-12555.6%

Lineup context

Projected lines

Vancouver Canucks

First line

LWJake DeBrusk
Player props3 markets
Total Assists0.5Over+35022.2%Under-52584.0%
Total Points0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18564.9%
Total Shots on Goal2.5Over+13542.6%Under-18064.3%
RWJonathan Lekkerimaki
Player props2 markets
Total Assists0.5Over+31024.4%Under-45081.8%
Total Points0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24070.6%
DElias Pettersson
Player props1 market
Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-13557.4%Under+10050.0%
DFilip Hronek
Player props2 markets
Total Assists0.5Over+13043.5%Under-17563.6%
Total Points0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13557.4%

Second line

CFilip Chytil
Player props1 market
Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
LWPaul Cotter
RWBrock Boeser
Player props3 markets
Total Assists0.5Over+22530.8%Under-31075.6%
Total Points0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-14058.3%Under+10548.8%
DJamie Oleksiak
DTom Willander

Tampa Bay Lightning

First line

CAnthony Cirelli
Player props3 markets
Total Assists0.5Over+23030.3%Under-32076.2%
Total Points0.5Over+10050.0%Under-14058.3%
Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
LWBrandon Hagel
Player props3 markets
Total Assists0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Points0.5Over-24571.0%Under+18035.7%
Total Shots on Goal3.5Over+11546.5%Under-15560.8%
RWNikita Kucherov
Player props3 markets
Total Assists0.5Over-20066.7%Under+14540.8%
Total Points1.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Shots on Goal3.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
DJ.J. Moser
Player props2 markets
Total Assists0.5Over+22031.3%Under-31075.6%
Total Points0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22068.8%
DJohn Carlson
Player props3 markets
Total Assists0.5Over-14058.3%Under+10548.8%
Total Points0.5Over-21067.7%Under+15539.2%
Total Shots on Goal2.5Over+13043.5%Under-17563.6%

Second line

CBrayden Point
Player props3 markets
Total Assists0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15060.0%
Total Points0.5Over-20066.7%Under+14540.8%
Total Shots on Goal2.5Over+14041.7%Under-19065.5%
LWGage Goncalves
Player props2 markets
Total Assists0.5Over+24529.0%Under-34077.3%
Total Points0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17063.0%
RWJake Guentzel
Player props3 markets
Total Assists0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13056.5%
Total Points1.5Over+16537.7%Under-23069.7%
Total Shots on Goal2.5Over-13056.5%Under-10551.2%
DRyan McDonagh
DErik Cernak