MLB matchup

10/18/20265:00 PMProgressive FieldCleveland, OH66°F · Sunny

Rays98 – 64vsGuardians85 – 77

Sharp side

🏠 Guardians +113

Model value

Team trendCleveland Guardians: +2.52 units outright in past month

The Cleveland Guardians have won outright in 11 of their 18 games (61.1%) in the past month, returning a profit of 2.52 units when betting one unit per game.

Sharp total

↓ Under 6.5

Model value

Team trendCleveland Guardians games: +1.40 units on Under in past month

10 of 18 games (55.6%) featuring the Cleveland Guardians have gone Under in the past month, returning a profit of 1.40 units when betting one unit per game.

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Tampa Bay Rays	2.8	50.2%
Cleveland Guardians	2.8	49.8%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Pitching	Overall
Tampa Bay Rays	B+	A-	A-
Cleveland Guardians	C-	A-	B-

Featured analysis

Matchup preview

Editorial oil painting of Progressive Field in Cleveland, with abstracted signage and anonymous figures.

Rays vs. Guardians Game 5: Can Tampa Bay’s bats stay hot?Tampa Bay's lineup woke up to tie the ALCS, but Game 5 brings another strong pitching matchup. Here's how that tension shapes the moneyline and 6.5-run total.Read analysis

Sportsbook context

Game lines

— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun Line

TB-126-1.5 (+135)

CLE+113+1.5 (-164)

Total 6.5Over -104Under -116

Recent form

Last 10 games

Tampa Bay Rays

Overall7–3–0W–L–TRun Line7–3–0W–L–PO/U5–4–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run Line	Total
10/17/26	@ CLE	W 7–3	W -1.5	O 6.5
10/15/26	@ CLE	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 6.5
10/13/26	vs CLE	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 6.5
10/12/26	vs CLE	L 3–7	L -1.5	O 6.5
10/7/26	@ NYY	W 4–3	W +1.5	P 7
10/5/26	vs NYY	W 5–2	W +1.5	O 6
10/3/26	vs NYY	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 7
9/27/26	@ PHI	L 3–7	L +1.5	O 6.5
9/26/26	@ PHI	W 12–1	W +1.5	O 6.5
9/25/26	@ PHI	W 2–0	W +1.5	U 6.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Cleveland Guardians

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun Line4–6–0W–L–PO/U5–5–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run Line	Total
10/17/26	vs TB	L 3–7	L +1.5	O 6.5
10/15/26	vs TB	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 6.5
10/13/26	@ TB	L 1–3	L +1.5	U 6.5
10/12/26	@ TB	W 7–3	W +1.5	O 6.5
10/10/26	vs CHW	W 2–0	W -1.5	U 7
10/8/26	@ CHW	W 9–5	W -1.5	O 7
10/7/26	@ CHW	W 9–3	W +1.5	O 7.5
10/5/26	vs CHW	L 3–4	L -1.5	O 6.5
10/3/26	vs CHW	L 0–3	L -1.5	U 6.5
9/27/26	@ KC	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Rays and Guardians
	Statistic
7.1 (8.6)	Hits	6.7 (7.9)
1.1 (1.4)	Doubles	1.2 (1.5)
0.7 (1.0)	Home Runs	0.7 (1.0)
10.5 (13.3)	Total Bases	10.1 (12.7)
2.8 (3.1)	Walks	3.2 (3.6)
7.4 (7.1)	Strikeouts	8.1 (7.9)
0.8 (1.0)	Stolen Bases	0.8 (0.9)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

RaysDrew RasmussenConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12255.0%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-12255.0%Under-10851.9%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-14759.5%Under+11147.4%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+11746.1%Under-15060.0%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+14441.0%Under-19365.9%

GuardiansParker MessickConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-13256.9%Under+10449.0%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%

Starting lineups

Tampa Bay RaysConfirmed

1Yandy DiazDH
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+13243.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37820.9%Under-58085.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-23269.9%Under+17236.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12054.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32076.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12455.4%Under-11252.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
2Jonathan Aranda1B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47617.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-19165.6%Under+14341.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28825.8%Under-42681.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
3Ryan ViladeRF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+61014.1%Under-104091.2%
Total Hits0.5Over+10249.5%Under-13657.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11353.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+38520.6%Under-59285.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+24429.1%Under-35578.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26272.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31024.4%Under-46282.2%
4Junior Caminero3B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41719.3%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-19165.6%Under+14341.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18335.3%Under-26072.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17763.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15460.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17563.6%
5Chandler SimpsonLF
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+17037.0%Under-22969.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+57414.8%Under-95090.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-23670.2%Under+17536.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26627.3%Under-39079.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25171.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12444.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+29425.4%Under-43581.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31224.3%Under-46682.3%
6Jonny DeLucaCF
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43018.9%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12943.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25228.4%Under-36778.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13757.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+41619.4%Under-65086.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25128.5%Under-36578.5%
7Liam HicksC
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51716.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13143.3%Under-17563.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26327.5%Under-38479.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21032.3%Under-30175.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25428.2%Under-37078.7%
8Ben Williamson2B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46317.8%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-14759.5%Under+11147.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17363.4%Under+12943.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30424.8%Under-45281.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22930.4%Under-33176.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14559.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32823.4%Under-49383.1%
9Taylor WallsSS
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+61014.1%Under-104091.2%
Total Hits0.5Over+10249.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+38920.4%Under-59985.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+24529.0%Under-35678.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23370.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+42719.0%Under-67087.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28625.9%Under-42280.8%

Cleveland GuardiansConfirmed

1Steven KwanLF
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46017.9%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-22068.8%Under+16437.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14459.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+37021.3%Under-56685.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23269.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13958.2%Under+10149.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+64013.5%Under-110091.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24329.2%Under-35377.9%
2Jose Ramirez3B
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46217.8%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-18364.7%Under+13742.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15660.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27926.4%Under-41080.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22869.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+34122.7%Under-51583.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33877.2%
3Chase DeLauterRF
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46817.6%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-18665.0%Under+13941.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25328.3%Under-36878.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26672.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+82010.9%Under-150093.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19034.5%Under-27073.0%
4Jo AdellDH
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38220.7%Under-58685.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-17964.2%Under+13442.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33877.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26472.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14759.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9209.8%Under-176094.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29525.3%Under-43781.4%
5Nathaniel Lowe1B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50516.5%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-14459.0%Under+10947.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17163.1%Under+12843.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29525.3%Under-43681.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20932.4%Under-30075.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27127.0%Under-39779.9%
6Travis Bazzana2B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51816.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31823.9%Under-47682.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22930.4%Under-33076.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17563.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28925.7%Under-42881.1%
7Patrick BaileyC
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59614.4%Under-100090.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13757.8%Under+10349.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+33722.9%Under-50983.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+25428.2%Under-36978.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20367.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31024.4%Under-46282.2%
8Petey HalpinCF
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+63013.7%Under-108091.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12154.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10651.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+38120.8%Under-58485.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+27926.4%Under-41080.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19365.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10408.8%Under-210095.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+45817.9%Under-73088.0%
9Brayan RocchioSS
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+57414.8%Under-95090.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14358.8%Under+10848.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+35721.9%Under-54384.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+24728.8%Under-35978.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+52016.1%Under-85089.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+40219.9%Under-62086.1%

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