NBA matchup
10/26/202610:00 PMBall ArenaDenver, CO

Warriors3 – 3vsNuggets3 – 2

Sharp side
🏠 Nuggets -7.5
Model value
Sharp total
↓ Under 236.5
Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Golden State Warriors105.35.2%
Denver Nuggets126.894.8%
Matchup intelligence

Team grades

TeamOffenseDefenseOverall
Golden State WarriorsC-B-C
Denver NuggetsAC+B+
More for this matchup

Matchup articles

Editorial oil painting of Ball Arena in Denver, with abstracted signage and anonymous figures.Can Denver trade the comeback drama for control against Golden State?Denver's ball-security and rebounding projections offer a path to a steadier performance, but Golden State expects Stephen Curry and Draymond Green back.Read analysis
Sportsbook context

Game lines

Best price Highlighted offers compare the same selection and line across the books shown.— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings
TeamMoneylineSpread
GS+220+7.5 (-112)
DEN-270-7.5 (-108)
Total 236.5Over -105Under -115
BetMGM
TeamMoneylineSpread
GS+220+7.5 (-115)
DEN-275-7.5 (-105)
Total 236.5Over -105Under -115
BetRivers
TeamMoneylineSpread
GS+235+7.5 (-115)
DEN-295-7.5 (-106)
Total 236.5Over -110Under -110
Caesars
TeamMoneylineSpread
GS+222+7.0 (-110)
DEN-278-7.0 (-110)
Total 236.5Over -110Under -110
Circa Sports
TeamMoneylineSpread
GS+225+7.0 (-110)
DEN-265-7.0 (-110)
Total 236.0Over -110Under -110
FanDuel
TeamMoneylineSpread
GS+220+7.5 (-114)
DEN-270-7.5 (-106)
Total 236.5Over -104Under -116
Hard Rock Bet
TeamMoneylineSpread
GS+220+7.5 (-110)
DEN-275-7.5 (-110)
Total 236.5Over -110Under -110
Kalshi
TeamMoneylineSpread
GS+233—
DEN-245—
Total —Over —Under —
theScore Bet
TeamMoneylineSpread
GS+220+7.5 (-110)
DEN-270-7.5 (-110)
Total 235.5Over -105Under -115
Recent form

Last 10 games

Golden State Warriors

Overall2–8–0W–L–TATS3–7–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
10/24/26@ PHXL 122–131W +9.5O 221.5
10/23/26vs MEML 108–111L -4.5U 236.5
10/21/26@ LALL 105–127L +6.5U 233.5
4/17/26@ PHXL 96–111L +2.5U 219.5
4/15/26@ LACW 126–121W +5.5O 220.5
4/12/26@ LACL 110–115L +3.5U 229.5
4/10/26@ SACL 118–124L -10.5O 228.5
4/9/26vs LALL 103–119L -1.5U 222.5
4/7/26vs SACW 110–105L -14.5U 233.5
4/5/26vs HOUL 116–117W +3.5O 227.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Denver Nuggets

Overall5–5–0W–L–TATS4–6–0W–L–PO/U5–5–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
10/24/26vs NOW 141–135L -11.5O 239.5
10/22/26@ OKCL 84–96L +7.5U 236.5
4/30/26@ MINL 98–110L -7.5U 223.5
4/27/26vs MINW 125–113W -11.5O 226.5
4/25/26@ MINL 96–112L -1.5U 228.5
4/23/26@ MINL 96–113L +1.5U 231.5
4/20/26vs MINL 114–119L -7.5O 232.5
4/18/26vs MINW 116–105W -7.5U 232.5
4/12/26@ SAW 128–118W +9.5O 235.5
4/10/26vs OKCW 127–107W -2.5O 223.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Warriors and Nuggets
Statistic
38.0 (40.8)Field Goals Made45.1 (42.9)
13.7 (15.5)Three-Pointers Made14.9 (13.9)
15.7 (16.9)Free Throws Made21.6 (21.0)
40.6 (42.2)Rebounds44.9 (43.8)
26.3 (28.6)Assists30.1 (28.4)
9.5 (9.7)Steals7.0 (6.8)
4.1 (4.2)Blocks3.9 (4.0)
15.2 (15.1)Turnovers12.2 (12.2)

Lineup context

Projected Lineups

Golden State Warriors
Expected Starters
  • PGStephen Curry
    Player props8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals3.5Over-14559.2%Under+11047.6%
    Total Assists4.5Over+10648.5%Under-14058.3%
    Total Assists and Rebounds7.5Over-10451.0%Under-12655.8%
    Total Points24.5Over-10751.7%Under-12054.5%
    Total Points and Assists28.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
    Total Points and Rebounds27.5Over-11152.6%Under-11854.1%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists31.5Over-12255.0%Under-10851.9%
    Total Rebounds2.5Over-16362.0%Under+12344.8%
  • SGBrandin Podziemski
    Player props8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over-15761.1%Under+11945.7%
    Total Assists3.5Over+10050.0%Under-13256.9%
    Total Assists and Rebounds8.5Over-10751.7%Under-12355.2%
    Total Points15.5Over-12655.8%Under-10150.2%
    Total Points and Assists19.5Over-11653.7%Under-11353.1%
    Total Points and Rebounds20.5Over-12655.8%Under-10451.0%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists24.5Over-11954.3%Under-11052.4%
    Total Rebounds4.5Over-14459.0%Under+10947.8%
  • SFYaxel Lendeborg
    Player props8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+12045.5%Under-15961.4%
    Total Assists3.5Over+10848.1%Under-14258.7%
    Total Assists and Rebounds10.5Over+10748.3%Under-14158.5%
    Total Points14.5Over-10851.9%Under-11854.1%
    Total Points and Assists17.5Over-12355.2%Under-10751.7%
    Total Points and Rebounds21.5Over-10851.9%Under-12255.0%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists24.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%
    Total Rebounds6.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%
  • PFGui Santos
    Player props3 markets
    Total Points8.5Over-12255.0%Under-10451.0%
    Total Points and Rebounds12.5Over-12455.4%Under-10651.5%
    Total Rebounds3.5Over-14659.3%Under+11147.4%
  • CDraymond Green
    Player props8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+16937.2%Under-22669.3%
    Total Assists5.5Over-14659.3%Under+11147.4%
    Total Assists and Rebounds10.5Over-13757.8%Under+10449.0%
    Total Points7.5Over-10751.7%Under-11954.3%
    Total Points and Assists13.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%
    Total Points and Rebounds12.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists18.5Over-11854.1%Under-11152.6%
    Total Rebounds4.5Over-14358.8%Under+10947.8%
Relevant Bench
  • GDe'Anthony Melton
    Player props4 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+16437.9%Under-21968.7%
    Total Points9.5Over-11252.8%Under-11453.3%
    Total Points and Rebounds11.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
    Total Rebounds2.5Over+11446.7%Under-15160.2%
Denver Nuggets
Expected Starters
  • PGJamal Murray
    Player props9 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals2.5Over-17463.5%Under+13243.1%
    Total Assists5.5Over-14659.3%Under+11147.4%
    Total Assists and Rebounds10.5Over+10349.3%Under-13557.4%
    Total Points23.5Over-10350.7%Under-12355.2%
    Total Points and Assists29.5Over-10751.7%Under-12355.2%
    Total Points and Rebounds27.5Over-10952.2%Under-12054.5%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists33.5Over-11553.5%Under-11453.3%
    Total Rebounds4.5Over+11945.7%Under-15761.1%
    Total Steals0.5Over-22869.5%Under+16937.2%
  • SGChristian Braun
    Player props6 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+14341.2%Under-18965.4%
    Total Points12.5Over+10149.8%Under-12856.1%
    Total Points and Rebounds17.5Over-10851.9%Under-12255.0%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists19.5Over-12555.6%Under-10551.2%
    Total Rebounds4.5Over-13958.2%Under+10648.5%
    Total Steals0.5Over-21968.7%Under+16338.0%
  • SFCameron Johnson
  • PFAaron Gordon
    Player props8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over-14358.8%Under+10848.1%
    Total Assists2.5Over-12255.0%Under-10851.9%
    Total Assists and Rebounds8.5Over-10250.5%Under-12856.1%
    Total Points15.5Over-12255.0%Under-10551.2%
    Total Points and Assists18.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%
    Total Points and Rebounds21.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists24.5Over-11052.4%Under-11954.3%
    Total Rebounds5.5Over-11052.4%Under-11954.3%
  • CNikola Jokic
    Player props10 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%
    Total Assists9.5Over-14158.5%Under+10748.3%
    Total Assists and Rebounds22.5Over-11753.9%Under-11252.8%
    Total Blocks0.5Over-14859.7%Under+11247.2%
    Total Points26.5Over-10651.5%Under-12054.5%
    Total Points and Assists36.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists49.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%
    Total Rebounds12.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%
    Total Steals1.5Over-10551.2%Under-12755.9%
    Total Steals and Blocks2.5Over+11147.4%Under-14759.5%
Relevant Bench
  • FDeMar DeRozan
    Player props7 markets
    Total Assists2.5Over-14859.7%Under+11247.2%
    Total Assists and Rebounds5.5Over-10451.0%Under-12655.8%
    Total Points13.5Over-10851.9%Under-11854.1%
    Total Points and Assists16.5Over-11152.6%Under-11854.1%
    Total Points and Rebounds15.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists18.5Over-12655.8%Under-10451.0%
    Total Rebounds2.5Over+10149.8%Under-13256.9%
  • FTrevon Brazile
    Player props3 markets
    Total Points9.5Over-10751.7%Under-11954.3%
    Total Points and Rebounds15.5Over-12856.1%Under-10350.7%
    Total Rebounds6.5Over+10050.0%Under-13156.7%


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