NBA matchup
11/12/20268:00 PMTarget CenterMinneapolis, MN

Mavericks7 – 4vsTimberwolves8 – 3

Sharp side
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Model value
Model trendMinnesota Timberwolves games: +0.28 units on model side bets this season

Model side bets in games featuring Minnesota Timberwolves went 6–5 (54.5%) this season, for an estimated profit of 0.28 units when staking one unit per bet.

Sharp total
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Model value
Model trendMinnesota Timberwolves games: +0.56 units on model total bets this season

Model total bets in games featuring Minnesota Timberwolves went 6–5 (54.5%) this season, for an estimated profit of 0.56 units when staking one unit per bet.

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

TeamOffenseDefenseOverall
Dallas MavericksBD+C
Minnesota TimberwolvesCB-C

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More for this matchup

Matchup articles

Editorial oil painting of Target Center in Minneapolis.Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: Can Minnesota cool off Flagg and Irving?Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving powered Dallas through a late comeback. Minnesota’s four-game winning streak presents a different test, with defensive stops and three-point production central to the spread and total.Read analysis Editorial oil painting of Target Center in Minneapolis.Timberwolves Parlay Picks vs. Mavericks: Side & Support Parlay PlaysCompare Jaden McDaniels’ rebounds and assists over with Cooper Flagg’s assists under for a Minnesota win, with individual DraftKings odds and the game records behind both lines.Read analysis Editorial oil painting of Target Center in Minneapolis.Mavericks Parlay Picks vs. Timberwolves: Side & Support Parlay PlaysCompare Cooper Flagg’s combined over, P.J. Washington’s made threes over and Ayo Dosunmu’s assists under for a Dallas win, with individual DraftKings odds.Read analysis

Sportsbook context

Game lines

— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings
TeamMoneylineSpread
DAL+185+5.5 (-106)
MIN-223-5.5 (-114)
Total 225.5Over -112Under -108
Recent form

Last 3 games

Dallas Mavericks

Overall3–0–0W–L–TATS2–1–0W–L–PO/U1–2–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
11/9/26vs INDW 125–122L -4.5O 227.5
11/8/26vs BKNW 130–93W -7.5U 223.5
11/6/26vs UTAHW 112–100W -6.5U 226.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Overall3–0–0W–L–TATS3–0–0W–L–PO/U1–2–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
11/8/26vs UTAHW 115–100W -12.5U 222.5
11/6/26@ NOW 115–109W -3.5U 230.5
11/4/26@ HOUW 117–107W +7.5O 219.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Mavericks and Timberwolves
Statistic
42.4 (42.4)Field Goals Made40.4 (42.2)

Lineup context

Projected Lineups

Dallas Mavericks
Expected Starters
  • PGKyrie Irving
    Player props1 of 9 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals2.5Over-13657.6%Under+10449.0%
  • SGCaleb Martin
    Player props1 of 8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals0.5Over+16138.3%Under-21568.3%
  • SFCooper Flagg
    Player props1 of 11 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+12544.4%Under-16562.3%
  • PFP.J. Washington
    Player props1 of 11 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over-12555.6%Under-10551.2%
  • CDaniel Gafford
    Player props1 of 8 markets
    Total Assists1.5Over+13143.3%Under-17363.4%
Relevant Bench
  • FMorez Johnson Jr.
    Player props1 of 8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals0.5Over+29425.4%Under-40980.4%
  • FNaji Marshall
    Player props1 of 8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals0.5Over-11553.5%Under-11453.3%
  • FSanti Aldama
    Player props1 of 8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals0.5Over-17163.1%Under+12943.7%
  • FZaccharie Risacher
    Player props1 of 6 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals0.5Over-10851.9%Under-12255.0%
Minnesota Timberwolves
Expected Starters
  • PGLaMelo Ball
    Player props1 of 9 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals3.5Over-10751.7%Under-12355.2%
  • SGAyo Dosunmu
    Player props1 of 8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over-14759.5%Under+11147.4%
  • SFJaden McDaniels
    Player props1 of 8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14058.3%
  • PFJonathan Kuminga
    Player props1 of 8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+11346.9%Under-14959.8%
  • CRudy Gobert
    Player props1 of 8 markets
    Total Assists1.5Over-10651.5%Under-12455.4%
Relevant Bench
  • FJaylen Clark
    Player props1 of 6 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals0.5Over-10350.7%Under-12755.9%
  • FTerrence Shannon Jr.
    Player props1 of 8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18164.4%
  • FTrey Lyles
    Player props1 of 7 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals0.5Over-23069.7%Under+17236.8%

Player availability

Injury report

Dallas Mavericks
  • CDereck Lively IIFootOut
    Lively (foot) is listed as out for Thursday's game in Minnesota.
    Updated: Nov 11, 2026 at 5:13 PM EST
  • FSergio de LarreaKneeOut
    De Larrea (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game at Minnesota.
    Updated: Nov 11, 2026 at 5:10 PM EST
  • FTarik BiberovicHeelOut
    Biberovic (heel) is out for Thursday's game against Minnesota.
    Updated: Nov 11, 2026 at 5:12 PM EST
Minnesota Timberwolves
  • GAnthony EdwardsKneeOut
    Edwards underwent a successful arthroscopic procedure on his right knee Thursday, the Timberwolves announced.
    Updated: Oct 29, 2026 at 2:33 PM EDT
  • GDonte DiVincenzoAchillesOut
    DiVincenzo (Achilles) remains confident that he'll return during the 2026-27 season, Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic reports.
    Updated: Oct 5, 2026 at 4:53 PM EDT

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